Cameron HurstPulte Homes IncPHMDON'T BUYJan 08, 2019
Large higher-end home builder in the U.S. Technically has come back. Still negative earnings. Too late in the cycle. Chart looks good but fundamentals aren't supporting the story. You want both fundamentals and price chart, and we don't have the fundamentals in this one yet.
In terms of earnings and revenues, there's little hope here, but there's a huge undersupply of US homes. Trump is trying to invigorate the US homebuilding space by barring institutional buyers. PHM has an opportunity to supply many homes.
Good opportunity here. Mid-range homebuilder. In 26 states. Good valuation around 10x PE. Some of the heat will come off the mortgage market, which will benefit homebuilders. Yield is 1%.
Has sharply risen since July with strong volumes. Has reached overbought territory now, at 52-week highs. The Chaikin Moneyflow which reflects institutional buying has been great. Has been making higher highs and higher lows. Lang says this could hit $200 next year.
(A Top Pick Nov 23/23, Up 34.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with PHM has triggered its stop at $109. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 36% when combined with the previous buy recommendations.
(A Top Pick Nov 09/23, Up 18.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with PHM has achieved its target at $96. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $69) to $75.
We reiterate PHM as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings indicated a 43% increase in orders, which helped beat earnings expectations. It trades at 8x earnings, under 2x book and supports a 30% ROE. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired and shares bought back. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $65) to $69, looking to achieve $96 -- upside potential of 17%. Yield 0.7%
The US homebuilder saw a 24% increase in new orders over the year and 2nd quarter revenues were up 8% to over $4 billion. It trades at 7x earnings, 1.7x book and supports a 31% ROE. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is aggressively retired and shares bought back. We recommend a stop-loss at $65, looking to achieve $97 -- upside potential of 23%. Yield 0.8%
(A Top Pick Jan 04/22, Down 12.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with PHM has triggered its stop at $50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with the previous buy recommendation, this will result in a net investment loss of 3%.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate PHM as a TOP PICK. With 2021 leaving many market analysts concerned about the lack of housing inventory, this well diversified US home builder should continue to see good headwinds. It is trading at 9x earnings, compared to peers at 17x and valued at just over 2x book. We like that it has been reducing debt and buying back shares. It pays a small (but growing -- up 50% over the past 4 years) dividend that is backed by an payout ratio under 10% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop from ($46) to $50, looking to achieve $66 -- upside over 15%. Yield 1.05% (Analysts’ price target is $65.58)