Stockchase Opinions

Joe MazumdarPremier Gold MinesPG.TOPAST TOP PICKMar 02, 2020

(A Top Pick Oct 16/19, Down 28%) It is like everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Their Mexican mine did not meet guidance and did not generate enough free cash flow. Their 50% cash flow in a north Ontario deposit has had the partner cause a delay in the capital spending. They had to raise money for their joint venture in Nevada where it is accelerating in spending. It is highly levered.
$1.24

Stock price when the opinion was issued

metal mines
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HOLD
Hold until sale to Equinox, or buy more? He holds both to benefit from long-term effects of inflation. He thinks the takeout is great. EQX is well run, a buy, with a $12 price target.
TOP PICK

It's a sum-of-the-parts story with three moving parts. The knock on it was they always needed to finance, but they financed. He likes their assets, including a joint venture with Barrick, which is worth PG's market cap alone. Their Ontario and Mexico assets are extraneous and will likely be sold. (Analysts’ price target is $3.93)

WAIT
Likes it. $5 target on it. Still has it as a buy. There's some litigation. Tends to shy away and wait when lawyers get involved.
PARTIAL BUY
The stock has languished vs. the gold price. He knows the managers; well-run. Buy a half-position now, then the other when they announce construction financing for the next project.
TOP PICK
His target price is $2.90. They are involved in a hard rock open pit project in Northern Ontario. It holds about 5.8 million ounces of resources. It has low geopolitical risk. It is also operating a project in Mexico. The risk is if gold prices falter. They also need about $200 million to develop the hard rock project, so there is a large short position out against them. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.88)
BUY
He has a $4.50 target. He likes it. Good managers and a low cost of production. Safe geography too in where it operates. They have a pretty good deposit.
DON'T BUY
Gold will trade in the $1,100-1,400 range. For PG to rise, gold must rise even above $1,400. He doesn't see any short-term upside in gold. PG has probably bottomed out, but he doesn't see it going up either.
PAST TOP PICK

(Past top pick March 6, 2018, Down 39%) Diversified North American portfolio with good geopolitical risk. They have a joint venture with Barrick which he just saw himself. Likes management. They have development as wel as exploration assets. He really likes their exposure to Nevada.

TOP PICK

Impressed with how they've bought projects and kept them in production. Will spend $90 million on projects this year, $60 with partners. That's the way to run a business. This will grow into a company that someone larger will buy to get into the North American market.

TOP PICK

Very liquid. Has a joint venture with Barrick Gold, so there are growth opportunities. One of the lowest-cash cost mines around. He sees a lot of drilling coming from their exploration. They generate a lot of free cash flow.

COMMENT

He is fairly positive on the whole junior producing sector. Thinks it is going to be pretty hard to screw up next year, and thinks this will trade higher.

COMMENT

This is in Ontario, but now has cash producing assets in a joint venture in Nevada. A bit of a different play than it was before, and he is more focused on exploration so this is not something he is looking at right now. It makes a lot of sense in terms of exposure to Canada and safety consideration. They have a good working capital position right now and won’t have to go to market anytime soon.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 2/16. Down 25%.) He still likes this. They had a small mine that lasted a year, but generated about $60 million in cash flow. They are now looking for an underground extension, and management is very confident that it will be built out. A good core holding among the junior gold producers.

COMMENT

He likes management and the approach they have taken. They have a bunch of different things going on including a mine in Nevada, and a project in Geraldton Ontario, a low-grade project that is something that will grow. This is a little more complex to follow. He likes what they have in Red Lake next to the Goldcorp project.