The Monthly Gems by Allan TongProcter & GamblePGTOP PICKAug 01, 2023

Is holding on, but doesn't expect a rebound soon, given the economy.

Owns neither. Of the two, he'd prefer JNJ. Hesitant to put them in the same basket. With spinoff of healthcare, it's now much more into pharmaceuticals (doing very well) and medical devices. Valuation is not that demanding. Executing well.

PG is a consumer products company. Consumer is in some difficulty, and jury's out as to whether we've seen the worst of that dip.

He doesn't have a lot of $$ in consumer staples. Pretty low earnings growth of 4.5%. Input costs are rising. Slightly below 200-day MA, which is falling; technical structure not sound. 200-week also starting to round down.

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DEO is not a good name to be in. For the same type of underlying safety and dividend growth, take a look at Nestle or PG or UL.

It reports Thursday. He doesn't expect much either way from the report, but PG has excellent brands and the stock is so down that it will bounce. Also, it pays a near-3% dividend.

The company warned that business isn't too hot among other problems. Yet, shares rose 1.46%, because it will do better than the cyclical stocks which will get crushed in a downturn. PG's rallying on bad numbers signals that the economy is going south.

Is down 14.4% in the past year, but it's a dividend aristocrat, paying a 3% dividend, just hired a new CEO who pre-announced a weak quarter. A quality company, but enter only partially now and gradually add ad the stock declines and the dividend rises.

These consumer stocks are facing inflation. Revenue growth has been low, 3% the last quarter. Margins remain strong, though. Never been cheaper. Pays a 3% dividend. He isn't that bullish on the consumer, but PG is defensive. A good time to buy now, but don't expect a huge return, like 5-10% share appreciation + dividend.

They use tech to fix the supply chain, and use AI to reduce supplies they don't need.  Also, the stock is down 13% this year and management said it will miss the quarter. Shares are on sale. Cheap at 20x PE and pays a 2.9% dividend.

He trimmed it. Consumer staples are very out of favour and will continue to weaken. He got stopped out.

Consumer staples have had a rough few years with high prices and weak demand; more cyclical than in past years. PG is run well, good in repackaging products to drive price increases, but prefers other sectors.

Have suffered from a strong dollar when they return their overseas profits back home, but going forward will benefit from a weaker USD.

It has one of the greatest consumer product lines in the world. A dividend aristocrat that has raised its dividend for 70 years. It yields only a 2.68% dividend yield, falling short of current interest rates and bond yields.

Is enjoying the rotation out of semis/tech stocks today, up 3.38%. It's been undervalued lately. Has more room to run; he expects the rotation to continue beyond today.

It reports Wednesday. He fears they might struggle with the strong USD in China