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Paycom
PAYC-N
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Nov 03, 2023
$159.020
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Technology
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EPS of $1.77 beat estimates of $1.61 and revenues of $406M missed estimates of $411.15M. PAYC shares fell significantly following its earnings release, after weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and a soft Q4 guidance. Analysts noted 'Beti cannibalization' as their reasons for downgrading the stock. Beti is the company's software that allows employees to do their own payroll and are guided to find and fix errors before payroll submission. Beti is leading customers to spend less on services and unscheduled payroll runs, negatively impacting monetization opportunities for PAYC.
It is a well-run company and has good fundamentals. Software is sticky, and if customers are finding its Beti product useful, then it may allow for growth in new clients, while being partially offset by the cannibalization factors. It trades at a historically cheap valuation (20.3X forward earnings), but much revolves around expectations for the future. We think long-term it can perform well, but unless management can talk to the eroding services revenue resulting from Beti, this may trade sideways for a few quarters or more. We think it can come back from this large decline.
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