Stockchase Opinions

Jean-Francois Tardif Osisko Mining OSK-T COMMENT Jul 07, 2009

Thinks this will become a huge mine. A lot of speculation that it could be a takeover by a major in 2009.
$6.550

Stock price when the opinion was issued

metal mines
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BUY

G-T’s bid was rejected by OSK. The cost of production for OSK is higher than he likes to see. A great, well managed company with assets in North America. When gold prices get to where he thinks it should be all of these companies will do well.

SELL ON STRENGTH

G-T and OSK today agreed to settle some of the litigation between them, but they are not currently in talks. Gold had a huge move and it is hard to distinguish what is the driver. This one should suffer if the deal is not going to go through. Gold stocks are very, very cheap. We need core inflation to pick up to drive gold. We are looking at range trading for most gold stocks right now. Thinks there may be one more move down for gold.

COMMENT

When the commodity price turns around then you wait for acquisitions to start. He was not surprised it went. Fits tightly into G-T’s stable of mines.

COMMENT

Stock is trading well above Goldcorp’s (G-T) offer price of just under $6. Gold stocks currently have positive momentum so you have a combination of momentum in the sector and a company which is being taken over. Chart shows it has clearly broken out and is in an upward trend. Outperforming the market and above its 20 day moving average. Looks great.

COMMENT

Goldcorp (G-T) deal is underwater right now. The proposal they have on the table is lower than where the stock is trading. Yamana (YRI-T) came in last week with a friendly proposal to buy half the company. Thinks this saga has not come to a conclusion just yet and feels Goldcorp will likely come back and rebid.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 14/13. Up 79.18%.) What happened here is the takeover action. First the overture made by GoldCorp (G-T) followed by Yamana (YRI-T) coming in like a white knight, and ultimately Agnico (AEM-T) and Osisko (OSK-T), which seem to be in the driver seat. He thinks the bid is a full and fair value for what the business is worth.

PARTIAL SELL

Thinks gold got sold out as a sector and had a good bounce over the few months. He looks at it as a not a long term shift. He would not focus on this group. Don’t add gold holdings but lighten them up.

RISKY
Great company. Speculative buy, $6.75 target. Gold leverage and reserves on the ground are important. Geopolitical risk is important, and all its properties are in Canada and NA.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 19/23, Down 5%)

It's been bumpy. It broke resistance at $19, but suddenly retraced, because of weakness in their diamond operation and poor diamond prices. Also, there was a corporate shake-out, including cutting a founder and installing a new CEO. Since then, they've returned to $19 and he expects shares to re-test last year's highs.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He's a dip-buyer of gold and a royalty name like has more correlation on the gold price than a miner like Barrick.