Stockchase Opinions

David Baskin Onyx ONXS-Q BUY Jan 10, 2007

Love it.
$4.790

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY
Lots of money. Good mngmnt.
COMMENT

Liquidate? He never recommends liquidating. He likes to scale. If you’ve had a good run and there are good profits, and some potential risks to the downside, then you cut a 3rd. If it keeps going up, then you are still playing, and then you cut another 3rd.

WEAK BUY
Historically, a good company. But BAM has stolen its thunder. There's a question of succession, plus do they have enough capital to build their business? With devalued assets, they should be able to make some money. Relatively undervalued. Not his top pick in the space.
DON'T BUY

Public version of private equity business model.
Subject to volatility as a result of public listing.
Would prefer private equity investments in "private" investment vehicle.
Higher interest rates will be tough for debt involved in business model. 

HOLD

ROIC is 7.7%, WACC is 10%. So right now, they're not generating the profitability he likes to see. It will work through over time so that at some point (from 2-5 years), they'll be profitable. Gets you into the private equity world. US deregulation should enhance M&A activity, especially if the Fed cuts another half a point. Good hold for the long term.

He owns BN instead.

DON'T BUY

Under pressure along with all the rest in private equity. Trouble finding liquidity for a lot of their deals. With rising rates, power is now in the hands of the lender, but private equity firms are huge borrowers. Stay away.