Opinions
Andy Nasr
Newell Brands Inc
NWL-N
TOP PICK
Nov 23, 2016
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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They did a merger with Rubber Maid a couple of years ago. Part of the issue was the amount of debt levels. There has been more competition from Amazon. The acquisition did not go as planned. He is not interested right now.
Soared 17% last Thursday after a report, going positive for the year after a long slump. Why did they soar while Newell Brands has lagged? Both make discretionary goods at a time when consumers are spending more on services or experiences. Yeti soared during Covid, but fell after. Since last October's market bottom, Yeti has rallied 61%. Revenue growth slowed from 29% in 2021 to 13% in 2022, sales never fell. Yeti's edge over Newell is its coolers. Their gross margins have swung from the high-50s in 2021 to low-50s in 2022, better than Newell's. For 2023, Wall St. projects Yeti's earnings to fall 3% vs. Newell plunging 48%. YETI has a strong balance sheet vs. Newell's $5 billion debt. Yeti never paid a dividend, but Newell's pays a generous one that they had to slash by 70% to 2.6%. That triggered a sell-off by income investors. That said, both companies are buys. Last week, Yeti raised its full-year forecast, especially over the holidays. Newell is a turnarounds tory under new management. The CEO had to slash the dividend. Their last quarter beat top and bottom line, but the CEO lowered guidance for the rest of the year. He thinks that was the last bad quarter, and the last bad quarter is the time to invest in a stock. Also, Newell is laying off 2% of its workforce and automating its warehouses and reducing their brands (they have way too many). Yeti is returning to growth mode at 16.4x PE 2024 vs. Newell's under 10x PE 2024. He prefers Yeti.
Merged with Jarden which also made a lot of household consumer oriented goods. That merger is important, because it gives them an opportunity to look at the Jarden business, which historically had been very acquisitive. They will be able to streamline it, rationalize the product skew, and derive significant synergies of over $500 million, which should result in significant earnings growth, and hopefully dividend growth down the road. A great way to play improved household formation in the US with increasing wages and rising consumer spending. Dividend yield of 1.57%. (Analysts’ price target is $60.)