Andrew PyleNVIDIA CorporationNVDAWATCHMay 28, 2025

This story has everything, but has the potential to be extremely destabilizing. It's a risk for the markets because the Chinese wouldn't have spent the billions they did if they weren't getting inside information.

The story has real legs and real implications. These advanced AI chips are everywhere in government, so it's worrisome.

In recent days, he has taken some data centre stocks off the table, but unfortunately not Nvidia. He still has a lot of exposure in AI, because he sees more upside ahead in AI. However, with the latest revelation, Jensen is a goner. He doesn't expect a bad quarter by NVDA next week. He is heartsick by the news about Jensen, and he'll leave it at that.

CEO is a very important part of this company. Have to see how that plays out.

Prior to that, has really benefited from AI buildout. Huge demand for chips. Providing financing to many of its customers -- circular financing -- especially with smaller, neocloud companies. Concerning, as it reminds her of things that have happened in the past. Another one is the impact if the pace of AI buildout slows.

Even with the pullback, she's not looking for an entry point. Has never owned.

CEO Jensen Huang probably didn't know the woman he was having an affair with was an agent for China. Investors shouldn't be focussed on that aspect. This may dampen Jensen's reputation as a leader in AI a little bit. In the bigger picture, this is relative noise and shouldn't matter too much.

CEO Jensen Huang admitted to an affair with a woman who could be a Chinese spy. NVDA's board is investigating and Huang removes CEO, but we have to consider a Jensen-less Nvidia. We don't know who could replace Jensen, but there is a real bench at the company. Don't dump Nvidia; if you dumped Apple after Steve Jobs died, you lost a fortune when Tim Cook took over. Nvidia has the best technology and remains the undisputed leader in the industry, but AMD is becoming a more capable competitor. Would Jensen, now distracted, remain as competitive? Did Jensen give up any plans or secrets to the alleged Chinese agent? If yes, then it would jeopardize Jensen's role at NVDA. Our interest remains: Is NVDA still a buy? His answer: Yes, still a buy, but be prepared for a CEO change. NVDA can go forward just on the strength of its multi-year product plan already developed, but he's concerned that the Democrats will slow data centre growth. NVDA relies on this growth to keep beating estimates; NVDA is worth less now than before the Midterms. Voters rejected data centres in 40 of 41 ballot measures. It could lead to in 2028 Washington regulating the data centre industry, a definite negative, like it monitors pipeline builds. He feels there is a window to permit new data centres in some parts of the U.S., but the endless build-out is over. You have to scale back your data centre holdings; he started to when the group went parabolic, before the vote. It looks what happened at the end of last week was a liquidation by hedge funds who held too much of the data centre stocks. We remain in a period of high volatility. He isn't judging Jensen Huang, but feels Nvidia is a less attractive stock than a week ago, even if the business remains strong. 

Probably the most solid of the semis. In consolidation range since end of April. Trading above rising 200-day MA. He's concerned about the sector; SOXX has broken down fairly badly today (only ~24% of companies are on favourable technical footing).

Best chart and fundamental picture. Quality name. That said, if it breaks the 200-day MA then he's gone. Hanging in pretty well, hold for now.

Circular financing is definitely the biggest pushback in the AI trade. That's why it and AVGO are raising money to buy chips for Anthropic. Huge need for this technology for the industry to grow, but cashflow and payback aren't yet high enough.

In middle innings of the AI buildout, and NVDA will participate. Guiding to 70% revenue growth next year (and that's not just circular financing). One of his largest holdings.

Buying this name is like buying GM in 1920. Largest company in the world. Dominating the AI trend with chips that perform the best, everyone else is trying to catch up. Between 20-30x PE, growing 70%. Revenue forecast of 73% this year. 

Sees no slowing till AI peak, which is probably 7-10 years away. Everyone should own this. Yield is 0.42%.

Today, they announced a plan to control autonomous AI agents from running amok. Also, they announced at $150 billion share buyback, the biggest ever.

She trusts him. Until NVDA breaches $230-236, it will rangebound from $210-230. But once it breaks that, the stock will go meaningfully higher. Until then, sell calls.

Thinks we're now in the later innings of the GPU cycle. Bifurcation between open- and closed-source models. Over time, NVDA will be the leader for open source. But Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like them will move ahead in closed-source. Over time, what part of the market will NVDA capture? Valuation's not expensive.

After owning for 5 years, she sold.

Exploding growth, visibly growing 48% compounded annually from 2026-2030. Trading 14x PE for 2028. Just beat and raised. Moat. Exceptional margins of 75%. Concerns on circular financing. 5 customers control 70% annual recurring revenue. Competition is trying to break in. Cyclical.

People aren't crediting it with enough value. Still a Buy. Still going to go up a lot. Yield is 0.45%.