TSE:NVA
Nuvista Energy Ltd (NVA.TO)
Financials 
Technical Analysis LNG Canada will be the next catalyst. Be patient. With Paramount as primary shareholder, concern that it could sell any day and drag share price down. He's the second-largest shareholder. 75% of free cashflow being used for buybacks. Target of $23, 78% potential upside.
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Premium contentWe reiterate this Western Canadian energy producer as a TOP PICK. Management has the goal to achieve 100,000 boe/d by 2026 and sees a 10% growth in production in 2024. Hedging activity is assisting against lower natural gas prices currently. It trades at 8x earnings, 1.3x book and supports an 18% ROE. We continue to recommend a stop at $12.00, looking to achieve $15.50 --18% potential upside. Yield 0%.
(Analysts’ price target is $15.50)
Has done phenomenally since Covid. Management has done a great job buying assets. Holding it back now is a lot of natural gas in storage because less was used during this mild winter and Paramount owns a controlling block; so if Paramount does a deal, will they sell NVA? Metrics are good, though and are buying back stock. He targets $24 or 96% upside, but there's that overhang. No easy fix for managers.
Eric NuttallPremium contentWe again reiterate NVA as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings showed the company has reduced debt by 43% over the year, achieved record high production, and bought back shares. It trades at 6x earnings, 1.3x book and generates 21% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $10) to $12, looking to achieve $16 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $15.83)Owns shares but has sold some due to strength. Free cash flow down a little. Expecting a ~$17 share price. Good for long term investors. Produce a lot of condensate. Strong company. Lots of natural gas exposure. LNG expansion will be good for company.
Eric NuttallOwns shares in company.
Prefers names with more exposure to oil.
Expecting 75% of free cash flow returned to shareholders going forward.
Good management team and reserves.
Higher exposure to gas.
Eric NuttallPremium contentBoasting record high production and supporting an ROE of 36%, we again reiterate NVA as a TOP PICK. Despite recent precautionary wildfire curtailments, quarterly production increased 9%, allowing for cash flows to rise, despite lower commodity prices. It trades at 8x earnings and 1.3x book value. We like that cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired and shares bought back. We continue to recommend maintaining a stop at $10, looking to achieve $15 -- upside over 20%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $15.40)Premium contentThis Calgary based energy producer in the Montney area is reiterated as a TOP PICK. Receding forest fires in the province is allowing production to resume and has just achieved record highs. It trades at 1.2x book, 7x earnings, and supports a 36% ROE. Cash reserves are growing while debt is retired and shared bought back. We continue to recommend a stop at $10, looking to achieve $16 -- upside potential of 39%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $16.00)Premium contentTrading at 7x earnings, 1.4x book and supporting a 37% ROE, we reiterate NVA as a TOP PICK. The company aims to invest 75% of free cash flows and has been aggressively retiring debt and buying back shares, while increasing cash reserves. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $8) to $10, looking to achieve $16 -- upside potential of 33%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $15.88)Second largest investor in company and still owns shares.
60% gas , but lots of condensate production.
20+ years of inventory.
Currently expecting 100% upside on stock.
Committed to return at least 75% of capital to shareholders.
Eric NuttallPrimarily a condensate producer.
Already hit debt target - will return 75% of free cash flow.
At strip gas, trading at 50% of fair value.
4x multiple (conservative) would imply 94% upside on share price.
Eric NuttallPremium contentThis $6 billion market cap producer in the prolific Montney region is setting production records. It trades at 1.4x book value and supports a 36% ROE. Strong operating cash flow is allowing debt to be retired. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $8, looking to achieve $16 — upside potential over 50%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $15.85)Eric NuttallEric Nuttall'%20fill='%23ffffff'%3e%3cg%20id='Pager'%20transform='translate(423.000000,%201755.000000)'%3e%3cpath%20d='M243.295367,17.286474%20C243.68919,16.9045087%20244.327703,16.9045087%20244.721525,17.286474%20L249,21.4361302%20L253.278475,17.286474%20C253.672297,16.9045087%20254.31081,16.9045087%20254.704633,17.286474%20C255.098456,17.6684393%20255.098456,18.2877274%20254.704633,18.6696927%20L249.35654,23.856763%20C249.159628,24.0477457%20248.840372,24.0477457%20248.64346,23.856763%20L243.295367,18.6696927%20C242.901544,18.2877274%20242.901544,17.6684393%20243.295367,17.286474%20Z'%20id='Path'%20transform='translate(249.000000,%2020.500000)%20scale(-1,%201)%20rotate(-90.000000)%20translate(-249.000000,%20-20.500000)%20'%3e%3c/path%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
'%20fill='%23ffffff'%3e%3cg%20id='Pager'%20transform='translate(423.000000,%201755.000000)'%3e%3cpath%20d='M243.295367,17.286474%20C243.68919,16.9045087%20244.327703,16.9045087%20244.721525,17.286474%20L249,21.4361302%20L253.278475,17.286474%20C253.672297,16.9045087%20254.31081,16.9045087%20254.704633,17.286474%20C255.098456,17.6684393%20255.098456,18.2877274%20254.704633,18.6696927%20L249.35654,23.856763%20C249.159628,24.0477457%20248.840372,24.0477457%20248.64346,23.856763%20L243.295367,18.6696927%20C242.901544,18.2877274%20242.901544,17.6684393%20243.295367,17.286474%20Z'%20id='Path'%20transform='translate(249.000000,%2020.500000)%20rotate(-90.000000)%20translate(-249.000000,%20-20.500000)%20'%3e%3c/path%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
Some of the highest-quality Montney acreage. Oily, nat gas exposure. Growing production by about 50%. Trades at a 15% forward free cashflow yield, 75% going to investors, expected to go to 100% (making a 22% free cashflow yield). His target price is $22.50. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $16.75)