Stockchase InsightsNutrien Ltd.NTR.TOBUYJun 17, 2024

Breaking out of a downtrend here -- encouraging. In the "yellow-neutral zone" (26-50% of stocks). Not bad. Looks to have bottomed and be turning up. Encouraging so far.

Peak on chart due to disruption in fertilizer components from Iran war. She was buying last week below $90. Good for the patient investor with a long horizon. Limited new potash supply coming on, the need will increase, high barriers to entry. 

Yield is 3.4%, which is paid from recurring revenue from the defensive retail channel. The solid dividend makes it safer to invest in this cyclical stock. Dividend's grown over 10% for past few years.

Trades at 11x forward PE and pays a 2% dividend. It will benefit from sustained fertilizer prices which have been impacted by the US-Iran war. That said, NTR benefits from lower energy costs, lowering their input costs. If the price of fertilizer stays flat or moves slightly higher, NTR will move higher. There will be capital rotation eventually. 

Lower nat gas prices do help. Likes its capital allocation. Farmer balance sheets are improving. Last quarter was in line. Buying back stock, increased dividend. Reasonable multiple of 12x PE for 2027, growing ~6%. Quality company, right theme. Likes it, but at a lower level.

In a trading range since Covid. Should do better when the world opens up again and there's less supply-driven inflation. You won't go terribly wrong owning it, as people still have to eat. With the dividend, you should do well over 5 years.

Likes its longer-term uptrend, despite recent pressure. A recent top pick for his firm's clients. Inflationary environment favours a shift to hard assets.

She owns it for the long-term, and owned it at $70. Buy dips, say if Trump reaches peace with Iran and shares drop 8%. Is volatile because it is a commodity. However, their dividend is covered by their stable retail business. The Strait of Hormuz is blocking fertilizer traffic.

Safe, reliable source of fertilizer in NA. Stock price has reflected constraints on supply from Middle East, and that'll be a shorter-term tailwind.

Eroding confidence in near-term supply. If crop prices soar, farmers will have more $$ for fertilizer. Stock's not crazy pricey, but it is overstretched along with other commodities. EPS path over next 3 years looks flat. Better value elsewhere.

Lovely U-turn. Earnings trend and FMV trend are up, and stock is following nicely. Likes it. Tentative, cross-your-fingers target of $153. Still a Buy today.

Price of fertilizer has been affected by Iran conflict. Jumped up 7-8% yesterday, so give it some time. If the Strait opens up soon, prices will come down and you'll have a better buying opportunity.

Modest increase to dividend when Q4 reported. Looking at strategic options for phosphate business. A need, not a want, for economically viable crops.

A heavyweight in agriculture. They dominate the wholesale space in potash, nitrogen and phosphate sold through a massive retail network directly to farmers. Shares are up 25% the past year, a nice move, as the potash market finally tightens due to production cuts by peers. Fertilizer prices have stabilized. They execute well and cut costs ($200 million). Are leaning on retail network to sell proprietary products. Valuation of 13x PE is in-line with the average. Hold on.

EPS of 97c beat estimates of 96c; Revenue of $6.00B beat estimates of $5.75B. Nutrien's broad strategy to streamline operations continued in 3Q with a strategic review of the phosphate business after the $600 million Profertil sale. Its nitrogen plants in Trinidad might be next, with the assets contributing about 1% to free cash flow, though reliable gas and port access would likely require solutions first. Stretched US farmer budgets and palm oil prices -- down 10% quarter-to-date and key to Southeast Asian potash demand -- are flashing warning signs for potash demand in 2026. Nutrien's second potash-guidance hike this year adds an incremental 50,000 metric tons in potash sales. At 1.9 million mt, 3Q retail volume was the lowest since 3Q19, hinting at farmer strain, although the $230 million segment Ebitda beat consensus by 13%. Things look OK, notwithstanding some economic uncertainty.
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Likes it here for the long term. Undervalued relative to historical trading levels. Dominant in key markets. Up today on rumours of selling phosphate division, which is the smallest out of phosphate/nitrogen/potash.