Jason Del Vicario MTY Food Group MTY-T DON'T BUY Oct 06, 2020

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The current valuation is relatively cheap if the current rate of reopening locations is maintained. Debt to equity ratio is around 1.6 due to the pandemic. The positive trend should continue into summer and fall with further reopenings. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. They generate free cash flow and the valuation is fairly cheap now at 2.5x forward sales and 15x forward P/E. Liquidity is not great. If rates rise, the debt could become a problem and put pressure on their margins and balance sheet. Valuation is at historical lows and there is decent upside potential with good downside protection. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Proven food consolidator in North America. Regained pre-pandemic sales levels. Trading at a good valuation. Geographic diversification. MTY can be defined as a network of restaurant and food brand names and has proven itself to be a successful consolidator in the industry. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Proven food consolidator in North America. Regained pre-pandemic sales levels. Trading at a good valuation. Geographic diversification. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Debt levels can be a concern. Operating cash flow stable. Management focused on cost cutting. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Impacted by wage inflation, rising food costs, and consumers spending less on eating out. Valuation is now attractive enough for a speculative (small position) buy.

Company has been around for a long time. Concern is that M&A not performing well. Location of business units in shopping malls, and food courts a concern (unsure on traffic in these locations). Ability to grow business is in question. However, value of business on markets is cheap. Would recommend investors look elsewhere. 

In Q2-2024, MTY reported a slight decrease in revenue by around 1% to $303.7M, beating the estimate of $294.5M, and EPS came at $1.27, which also beats the estimate of $1.07. The results are just OK, but improving, and came in better than expected in both the top and bottom line. MTY continues to run a leveraged balance sheet with a net debt of $1.2B and net debt/EBITDA of 4.7x. The company also repurchased shares at a more aggressive pace recently and just renewed its share repurchase authorization. MTY’s businesses continue to generate healthy cash flow, however, MTY’s growth prospect sover the next few years is expected to be flat, but the valuation is also reasonable, trading at 12.7x Forward P/E.
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Used to be a good "compounder" (~20% annually). However, growth has slowed to around 10%. Is watching, but not investing at this time.