Opinions
Barry Schwartz
Vail Resorts Inc
MTN-N
PAST TOP PICK
Aug 21, 2023
$224.860
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 30/19, Down 21%) They had to close early because of the pandemic. Will there be a ski season for 2021? Vail says yes, and it's open for hiking now. But people may not want to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants there. No surprise that leisure stocks like this are taking a hit and will benefit greatly from a vaccine.
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TOP PICK
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It has rallied $14 from its low, defying the market sell-off. They just reported a strong quarter, a good fiscal 2022 full-year, and a very bullish forecast. He has liked Vail this even before Covid, and during Covid. They announced a stretegic shift in January 2022 by slashing passes by 20% to sell more season passes to customers who aren't rich. They also reported a beat in June, but the market didn't care. Pass sales are up 7% YOY as of September 2022. Trades at 24x earnings, about half of last November's level. He wouldn't be surprised if shares decline more with the market, but this is a buy during such weakness.
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Expecting further growth of travel.
Poor winter conditions impacting share price.
Very strong assets with best ski hills in the business.
Strong free cash flow with steady dividend.
Good value proposition with season's pass.
Stock price currently undervalued - good time to buy.