Stockchase Opinions

Barry Schwartz Vail Resorts Inc MTN-N BUY Jun 15, 2020

He kept this one. He felt it fell too much. They will come out of this better and bigger. It is a pretty good sport for social distancing. Long term there is nothing better than this business.
$184.830

Stock price when the opinion was issued

0
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 07/19, Up 13%) They made skiing a growing and flourishing business. With the epic pass, it is a growth business. It is a great opportunity to own one of the premier companies in the world with a moat around it.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 30/19, Down 21%) They had to close early because of the pandemic. Will there be a ski season for 2021? Vail says yes, and it's open for hiking now. But people may not want to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants there. No surprise that leisure stocks like this are taking a hit and will benefit greatly from a vaccine.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 04/19, Down 5%) Will be opening all resorts in the Fall. Has both day use and overnight properties. Unique properties. Pleasantly surprised by its recovery since March. Can increase revenues by increasing prices and expanding services to its current user base.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 04/19, Up 27%) As a tourism stock, he can't believe it's up so much. Has fly-in, but also drive-in, resorts. Unique geographical assets that no one can duplicate. They're not building any more mountains.
TOP PICK
Same price as during Covid, which makes no sense. Should report strong results. Upcoming pass sales seem strong. All systems go. Acquires any mountains for sale. Strong management. Lots of free cash. High-end clientele insulated from inflation. Yield is 3.47%. (Analysts’ price target is $294.30)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It has rallied $14 from its low, defying the market sell-off. They just reported a strong quarter, a good fiscal 2022 full-year, and a very bullish forecast. He has liked Vail this even before Covid, and during Covid. They announced a stretegic shift in January 2022 by slashing passes by 20% to sell more season passes to customers who aren't rich. They also reported a beat in June, but the market didn't care. Pass sales are up 7% YOY as of September 2022. Trades at 24x earnings, about half of last November's level. He wouldn't be surprised if shares decline more with the market, but this is a buy during such weakness.
BUY

Trades at 33x earning and pays a 3.3% yield, and is riding the travel/leisure wave of people wanting to enjoy life after being locked up during Covid.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/22, Up 7%)

Expecting further growth of travel.
Poor winter conditions impacting share price.
Very strong assets with best ski hills in the business.
Strong free cash flow with steady dividend.
Good value proposition with season's pass.
Stock price currently undervalued - good time to buy. 

PARTIAL BUY

It was a winner until 2021 when it peaked, but has slid since. It still hasn't bounced back. Had a disappointing 2023-4 season, which the company blamed on lack of snow. However, season pass sales are floundering, because they have been pumping up skiing prices. Also, they suffered a 2-week strike in Utah which hurt shares. Last spring, shares fell to Covid levels. Last week, MTN changed CEOs. Q3-2025: -7% YOY skiier visits, +3% resort revenue YTD and +8% raised prices YOY. People spent more money on ancillary services. They posted in-line revenue and an earnings beat. Guidance mentioned tariff unknowns. Shares then sold off. The turnaround could take a while, though MTN is cheap at under 20x PE now. But MTN needs to do something, like cut prices.