Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad MoneyMarathon OilMROBUYJan 03, 2022

Among the 10 top performers on the S&P of 2021 #2, up 146%. Its success snuck up on him. But MRO does have capital discipline, which it didn't have before. It paid down debt and raised its dividend for the third straight quarter ever, but didn't increase its drilling budget. This despite strong cash flow and earmarked $2.5 billion share buybacks going forward. This could be a repeat winner in 2022.
$16.87

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils
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BUY

Is up 33% the past 6 months. Just rebought it. Trades at a low 14x PE. Pays a 2% dividend, which has been increasing 15% the past 3 years. They buy back shares.

BUY

Shares outpace peers Valero and Phillips 66 because they have bought back more shares this year, at 14.7%. If the price of oil declines, refiners like MRO will do well, because the gas price never falls as fast as oil, and so the wider the spread the more money the refiners make.

DON'T BUY

Trades at a low PE, but is a value trap and is highly cyclical. Their EPS leapt from $3.79 in 20167 to -$1.52 in 2020 to $26.63 last year! Up, down and up big. It's almost impossible to repeat 2022 numbers. Marathon has had a big share buyback. The dividend did grow a little. Today, shares are hitting 5-year highs. However, future 2025 EPS estimates are sliding to less than half of 2022's peaks, because of less demand for oil and gas. Also, the existential long-term obstacle are EV's. Consider the massive clean-energy incentives in Biden's 2022 IRA. It's possible earnings have already peaked--big warning.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
A downstream oil operation including gas stations. It's pulled back $15 recently from its high and now looks attractive.
BUY
82% of the production is domestic. Has a whopping 23% free cash flow yield.
SELL
He just took profits here. It's up 250% since the bottom of the recession, higher than XLE or S&P. It's time to move on--this is a cyclical stock, which means it will go down at some point, so he pulled the trigger to buy other names (CLF).
SELL
He just took profits here. It's up 250% since the bottom of the recession, higher than XLE or S&P. It's time to move on--this is a cyclical stock, which means it will go down at some point, so he pulled the trigger to buy other names (CLF).
BUY

He likes it. On days, oil stocks could soar or slide. Watch the last 30 minutes of trading. The trend is clearly higher on oil stocks.

BUY

The stock is at $12.50. He bought the $15 strike calls in November. He added to his holding, and will hold them for two months.

WEAK BUY

It's okay. It got an upgrade today and shares will probably go higher. He prefers Chevron, though.

BUY
It's had a big move lately, but he'd still buy it. It pulled back today.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't like it. It's had a good run like all oil natural gas stocks. They will make okay money given current and projected oil and nat gas prices.
WEAK BUY

It is a big question mark as to how these companies will do under new regulation. They have really struggled and come down over the last few years. Don’t put too much faith in the forward PE on this stock because estimates keep going down. It probably is a value play here.

WAIT
He is a long-term believer in energy. North America is becoming more and more energy independent and owning North American energy companies is the right way to go. Crude potentially has more downside to go. Evaluation is starting to look compelling on a long-term basis. A little early.