Stockchase Opinions

The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong Moderna MRNA-Q TOP PICK May 11, 2020

There are general concerns that any pharma company can mass-supply its vaccine, but Moderna vows to begin its still-unapproved vaccine “as early as July.” Moderna is partnering with Swiss drugmaker, Lonza, to accelerate production on mRNA-1273, which was the first candidate to enter a phase 1 human trial back in March, though results are pending. A week ago, Moderna submitted an application to the FDA to start a phase 2 trial. The company says phase 3 could happen as soon as the fall. Moderna is developing mRNA-1273 with partner NIH (the National Institutes of Health). The federal NIH explains that the partners developed a candidate early, because they were already researching “related coronaviruses” together. Unlike JNJ and Pfizer, Moderna's sole focus is vaccines to battle infectious diseases. Unlike those peers, Moderna did not suffer much of a plunge during the March bottom, and is currently trading at highs around $50. It pays no dividend and has an EPS of -1.55x and revenue growth of -55.42%. While JNJ and Pfizer can thrive if they don't find the vaccine, Moderna would have more to lose and the most to gain for this breakthrough.
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They have special technology; this morning they announced a collaboration with AI. Shares have been declining and there are sellers everywhere. You have to wait until they invent the special vaccines en masse they promised.

WATCH

A staple, and that sector is starting to outperform the market. A value play. His target is around $200-ish, if it can break resistance around $140. If it fails, give it a few days, and then walk away if you have to.

DON'T BUY

It's had a huge price surge recently and is now too pricey. Prefers Pfizer.

DON'T BUY

Moderna rallied 29% in May after a good report and news on developing a bird flu vaccine to fight that epidemic. Another boost came when the government approved their RSV vaccine. But Moderna is expected to lose money in the foreseeable future. Instead, look at biopharma.

DON'T BUY

They aren't producing the personalized cancer vaccines he expected, nor using AI as he hoped.

DON'T BUY

Down 33% the past month and could fall more. It isn't making any money and isn't delivering cancer vaccines.

DON'T BUY

They should have done something with the money they had, and are now losing money hand over fist.

DON'T BUY

They aren't delivering on the things--vaccine results--they promise. He struggles with this stock.

DON'T BUY

Post-Covid, they have a pipeline of drugs under development, related to vaccines and cancer. This is higher-risk in health care. They have $3 billion in revenues, but are spending a lot in R&D, more than their revenues, so they're not profitable. 

DON'T BUY

No revenue growth and the company seems unconcerned that they are losing so much money. This is why sentiment has turned against MRNA.