Stockchase Opinions

Zachary Curry Morguard North American REIT MRG.UN-T PAST TOP PICK Apr 07, 2014

(Top Pick May 13/13, Down 9.79%) Story has not changed. New business is moving into US. Likes this sector in the US. Rental market is strong. Any market correction would see money go into REITs where shareholders get rewarded with income.

$9.650

Stock price when the opinion was issued

REAL ESTATE
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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 25/13. Up 2.8%.) The whole REIT space has been a poor performer and is really a bellwether warning about buying stocks. He wanted to take some losses so he sold his holdings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 25/13. Up 1.64%.) Has been a real disappointment. Well-managed company. A little bit too much debt. Sold his position at the end of 2013 for a tax loss. Have good growth prospects in North American residential rental properties.

COMMENT

They own apartments both in Canada and the US. This is a classic case of good real estate trading at a wide discount to its NAV in apartments. Current NAV is $14-$15. Trading at a large discount because it has a very large controlling shareholder (Morguard Corp) as well as having higher leverage than many of its peers. Also, as a small-cap REIT, most investors are going to wonder how they are going to grow.

BUY

The fundamentals in this space are good. Hold on to it. Rental rates have reached a point where it is very economic for new builds to occur. M&A will be factor in this industry.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute) He sees some value in apartment REITs in the US that are listed in the US.

COMMENT

These are apartments. In the real estate sector, the apartment sector tends to have the shortest lease term and tends to be the most defensive asset class amongst all the real estate subsectors. He likes the sector in general, but doesn’t own this one. His big knock on US apartments is excess supply. Thinks this will peak in 2017 and gradually moderate, and then you should see fundamentals improve, especially given the potential uptick in consumer incomes on the back of a tax cut in stronger employment. Payout ratio is relatively good at about 70%. Dividend yield of just under 5%.

COMMENT

A vehicle for holding more stable properties. More of a yield play than Morguard Corp. He owns both. Over the long-term, Morguard Corp is the more attractive, because it is where fees accrue to, and also retains more capital instead of paying the bigger dividend. Because the shares of Morguard Corp trade at a meaningful discount to its fair value, they continue to buy back stock from time to time, which further accretes value per share.

DON'T BUY

He likes it for being in multi-family rentals. It's challenged because it's controlled by Morguard Corp. Diversification is 43% in Canada, 57% in the United States. Nice dividend. Probably worth $22/share. But there's better value elsewhere like CAP REIT or BSR.

HOLD
A hold. A value name in apartments in Canada and the U.S. He's impressed with how stable their Toronto portfolio is, holding occupancy quite well. MGR is in the US sunbelt and Chicago. MRG is higher-leveraged. He's seeking REITs that are defensive. He doesn't see as much growth here vs. the REITs he already owns. The reason is that MRG is in some weaker U.S. markets.
HOLD

Apartments on both sides of the border. Always trades at wide discount to NAV, a good starting point when you invest. Nice portfolio. Keep holding if you own, but better ideas out there. Nice distribution of 5.5%.