Stockchase Opinions

Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBAMDF Commerce Inc.MDF.TOTOP PICKSep 22, 2020

The AGM is tomorrow. They provide e-commerce software to big companies like Sobey's, just like Shopify does for smaller ones. Also, they enable suppliers to bid on government contracts; MDF just won a big contract in this business in the UK. 80% of their sales are recurring, but it trades at only 1.5x recurring revenues vs. 30-40x among peers. A no-brainer. You will do extremely well with this. Investors associate MDF with its hodge-podge of accumulated internet platforms over years, but new managers are focusing on their winning core platforms. He expects new contract coming, helped by the online trend. (Analysts’ price target is $8.85)

$6.94

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$5.80

As of May 22, 2024. Market Open.

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 63%)

It was bought out, an undervalued Canadian tech company as leaders in e-procurement in both Canada and the U.S. This stock was too cheap for too long, then KKR bought it last May. He thought the buying price was way too late.

COMMENT
How to spot the CEOs that shop their company around on the QT and then sell for a low price?

Not really the CEO driving the process. It would be the board's decision whether to sell a company or to replace management. You can read the circular that came out. 

HOLD

His biggest position. Not happy with KKR's offer of $5.80. Worth more. Still time for a higher bidder to come forward. Early days for digitizing procurement systems. De facto leader in that space. He's not selling, counting on biggest shareholder to negotiate a higher price.

COMMENT

It's gone through a couple of management team changes. There are better and more profitable places to be in technology.

TOP PICK

It develops business to government and e-commerce platforms. It is the number one player in the U.S. and has some recent, very significant contract wins. It is a great turn-around story and is now profitable with positive free cash flow along with 80% of revenue being high margin. He sees good growth.             Buy 2  Hold 2  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $4.56)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 14/22, Up 117%)

Still likes it, tremendously undervalued. Leaders in Canada and US. 6% market share in US, a nascent market. Recently announced 2 significant US contracts. Robust pipeline of states looking to digitize. Trades at barely over 1x revenues. EBITDA positive, improving every quarter. Lots of room still.

BUY

Good results last night. Turnaround in profitability, nice organic growth. Wouldn't be surprised if it was acquired. Great commerce platform in the US.

HOLD

eCommerce aggregation business.
Does not own stock.
Growth and profitability not strong enough.
Paying down debt which is good for the company.
High valuation would suggest better names to buy.

BUY

Still owns it. Came down with all tech stocks, and they made a costly acquisition. Also have an e-commerce business with clients like Sobeys; he thinks MDF may sell this and become a pure e-procurement company. He sees upside, because they have valuable businesses they can sell. Shares remain cheap. Growth will resume in the US with a recently acquisition.

BUY
Its main business is e-procurement and it had a big meltdown along with the tech rout. It is not only an e-commerce platform for large corporations but has several smaller businesses as well. It is trading well below the sum of its parts. It had a good offer for a very small division which would give it $67 million, basically its present market cap so it could pay off debt, have a net cash position and still keep its two main businesses. It is focused on improving profitability, EBITA and margins. There is lots of upside, maybe $6 or $7 in 12 to 18 months and $14 in the next five years.
TOP PICK
Overly beaten up. E-commerce for large corporations, such as Click & Collect. E-platform lets people bid on government contracts. IT labour shortages, high capex for acquisition. Dirt cheap. Activist shareholder should unlock value. Stock could see $6. No dividend.
BUY
Likes business and will continue to hold shares. Expecting recent acquisitions to pay off well. Share price presenting good opportunity to buy. Expecting valuation of shares to rise.
BUY
Company is core position for fund. Really like company and has excellent long term prospects. Recent acquisition has been drain on cash, but will pay off. Fast growing business segment. Company revenues include high margins, and are recurring. Organic growth in every segment of business. Stock price is very cheap in relation to peers. Good time to buy.
HOLD
Issued a huge number of shares to fund big acquisition. Stock fell. Acquisition was good. Procurement for governments in the US, a fast-growing business. E-commerce for traditional retailers. Good recurring revenue model. He's hoping for good results, and stock at $10 in next 12 months. Definitely hold on. Good technology, good clients.
DON'T BUY
Small cap, in a very competitive marketplace with players like GIB.A and OTEX. Large, transformational acquisition last year has an interesting business model, but not very profitable. A show-me story. Not interested.