Opinions Richard Fogler
LuLulemon Athletica (US)LULUDON'T BUYSep 05, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 28, 2026. Market Open.
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Valuation quite cheap, but there's a question mark over the business. Lost their way, moving from athletic gear to daywear. Fight in the boardroom. Similar businesses have been resurrected, and others have disappeared. Tricky to know which.
Still a good brand. Good penetration around the globe.
Premium brand, but an affordable luxury. Valuation's getting much more compelling. Beat on Q1, but impacted by tariffs. Proxy battle going on. Turnaround plan needs to materially reduce inventory. Bumpy earnings profile for next 1-2 years. Only 13x PE, but remember that retail is fickle.
On risk/reward, better value out there. If you feel speculative right now, you could start building a position in your non-registered account. You could even sell puts.
Long-term speculative turnaround. He's built a position over the last 6 months. Sold a bit when it did well; if it drops again, he'll buy more. Quality and reputation are in its favour.
Bruce MurrayHe had bought NKE as a turnaround story, which didn't really play out so he exited. Both are retail turnarounds with very strong brands. Logistically, it's very hard to turn around a brand and rejig the supply chain. These turnarounds take longer, with significantly more risk. (Compare that to a TD, which just had to cope with the one-time charge of a financial penalty.)
For NKE, with growing anti-American sentiment it could be hard to turn things around. LULU could, sometime, be a takeout target by private equity or another retailer. But that's not a reason to buy, especially when earnings and cashflow are still declining.
First thing to note is that it's in a big downtrend and has been for the better part of 2 years. However, looks as though it may have made a bottom. On a 1-year chart, you can see a floor starting to form around $160, and starting to creep back up. Now bumping up against resistance around $200-210. Selling pressure seems to be fairly exhausted, trying to form a nice saucer bottom.
What we want now, technically, is for it to break out -- want it to go up to $210-220, on volume, and hold onto those gains. On the cusp, but not quite there yet.
Sees a comeback. Started to reacquire stock last summer just below $200, and bought more at $160-170. Lots of things need to go right, but if they do then there's 50-70% upside. Doesn't think it's a broken brand, will still have lots of growth internationally.
Key is getting US business back to growth, and the new CEO will need to deliver. Products from new designer hit the shelves this spring.
Jamie Murray It pulled back massively the last two years. Revenues have been growing at 6-7% though slower than before, and margins have tightened
(Analysts’ price target is $213.13)
Matt Kacur
The $160 level it's at right now is the same one back in 2018. If he saw further erosion from here, it'll probably get to the $80 range. Whole retail space is starting to get interesting right now. Overhead resistance will be ~$200 as it fights through all the touch points you can see on the chart.
Hold for now. If it gets into the low $150s, sell and take your tax loss. Then stick with the space and choose another horse.
Great business and products. Hot new competition in the space, so they no longer control it. And that's a reason not to buy. For him, the company is much more important than the stock price.