Richard Fogler LuLulemon Athletica (US) LULU-Q DON'T BUY Sep 05, 2025

It reports Thursday. Are doing a ton of  business in China. Shares are too cheap now.

Is very surprised shares tanked after reporting (he had recommended buying before the report). They had a bad conference call and quarter. Everything went wrong for them, including tariffs. He expects a corporate shake-up.

It was very sold off so she bought it and sold in December for a 36 to 37% return and not a long hold time. It is now oversold even with the recent guidance cut. She doesn't like the discretionary space but there could be some upside.

Used it as a trading opportunity. Exited back in December when her team saw some weakness in the consumer. Sales grew 21% in China and 20% elsewhere. Margins held up despite inventory headwinds. Pricing power remains strong. Trades below 17x forward PE compared to 5-year average of 27x, undervalued again. Zero debt, lots of cash.

Cautious now, but back on her radar.

Average down? Shares are -43% for the year, so it's tricky, but you can buy modestly now to your holding.

He sold in December/24 since it got to their price faster than expected. There is some tariff noise around it. Same store sales in the U.S. haven't really grown in 2 years so it's best to wait.

Under pressure from tariffs and overseas manufacturing, now good value around 14x PE compared to its history. Based in Canada, but about 80% of sales from US. No dividend.

You could look out to September and sell a $195 put and get ~$11. Gives you $7 of downside protection before hitting the strike. If stock continues to drop, you buy it there minus the $11 you collected. If stock doesn't drop, you've made close to 6% over 1.5 months. Reports early September.

It has had a deep dive since January. Has had issues with international markets and recovery. It is a global leader in premium athletic wear but there is intense competition from its competitors. Wait for a turnaround to start and then maybe take an initial position of 1 1/2%. She has traded it before. Analysts are forecasting a 54% upside.

Look at the 5-year chart for the big picture. Has support ~$300. Recently bounced, and then failed (failure of support). So we have ourselves a breakdown, the opposite of a breakout. Will probably bounce in the near term. 

But there's this monstrous wall, let's call it $270, and the stock will probably fail before that point. At the points of support and resistance, people bought there and they remember what they paid. They just took a shellacking and they want out. And that's why you'll see selling pressure.