Opinions David Fingold
Kroger Co.KRDON'T BUYSep 19, 2016
David FingoldStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 08, 2026. Market Open.
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EPS of 93c beat estimates of 91c; revenue of $33.91B marginally missed estimates. Kroger appears well-positioned to navigate an increasingly complex consumer-spending environment. Mainstream households led sales growth in fiscal 2Q amid loyal households and increased visits, a trend that could extend in 3Q, aiding same-store sales gains. Volume expansion appears to be slowly improving, buoyed by strategic promotions. Private-label product sales growth outpaced that of national brands, helping bolster gross margin, which the company believes will expand slightly for the full year, yet might be flat in 3Q. Kroger indicated adjusted EPS in 3Q could be slightly stronger than in 4Q. The company noted that e-commerce profitability is improving, boosted by more orders for its delivery network and store pickup. KR lowered its CEO pay by 18% recently, and it does vary on performance. He needs to get by on $15.7 million total compensation this year. Excessive, but at least it varies with performance, and we have seen much worse.
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He would stay away from grocery in general. A major factor is food deflation, but even if the gross margin of a grocery store were to remain constant, and selling prices are lower, they are delivering less growth margin dollars against the fixed costs. The other problem is that a lot of the profit pools of the grocery industry are really under assault. There are hard discounters coming into the US like Aldi, Richard selling natural foods at incredibly low prices, working on very low markups. (See Top Picks.)