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Kroger Co.
KR-N
HOLD
Sep 20, 2024
$55.390
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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COMMENT
proposed merger Kroger is buying Albertson's, but the White House won't allow it, he thinks. The deal is worth $24.6 billion. Now, he's changing his mind. If the deal goes through, then Albertson's will gain huge. Both stocks have been lagging before this deal. Together, they would have a lot of heft with suppliers, boosting free cash flow and lower admin costs (among other benefits), reaching $1 billion in synergies in four years (say the companies). They would be the second-largest grocer in the U.S. But the merger of Albertson's and Safeway was a disaster, and the FTC definitely remembers that. It will be a long slog (the chances don't look good).
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EPS of 93c beat estimates of 91c; revenue of $33.91B marginally missed estimates. Kroger appears well-positioned to navigate an increasingly complex consumer-spending environment. Mainstream households led sales growth in fiscal 2Q amid loyal households and increased visits, a trend that could extend in 3Q, aiding same-store sales gains. Volume expansion appears to be slowly improving, buoyed by strategic promotions. Private-label product sales growth outpaced that of national brands, helping bolster gross margin, which the company believes will expand slightly for the full year, yet might be flat in 3Q. Kroger indicated adjusted EPS in 3Q could be slightly stronger than in 4Q. The company noted that e-commerce profitability is improving, boosted by more orders for its delivery network and store pickup. KR lowered its CEO pay by 18% recently, and it does vary on performance. He needs to get by on $15.7 million total compensation this year. Excessive, but at least it varies with performance, and we have seen much worse.
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