Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
EPS of 93c beat estimates of 91c; revenue of $33.91B marginally missed estimates. Kroger appears well-positioned to navigate an increasingly complex consumer-spending environment. Mainstream households led sales growth in fiscal 2Q amid loyal households and increased visits, a trend that could extend in 3Q, aiding same-store sales gains. Volume expansion appears to be slowly improving, buoyed by strategic promotions. Private-label product sales growth outpaced that of national brands, helping bolster gross margin, which the company believes will expand slightly for the full year, yet might be flat in 3Q. Kroger indicated adjusted EPS in 3Q could be slightly stronger than in 4Q. The company noted that e-commerce profitability is improving, boosted by more orders for its delivery network and store pickup. KR lowered its CEO pay by 18% recently, and it does vary on performance. He needs to get by on $15.7 million total compensation this year. Excessive, but at least it varies with performance, and we have seen much worse. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
The Kroger-Albertsons deal He thinks Washington will reject this deal, even though he respects and likes Kroger's powerful CEO. Washington won't listen to her.
They report Thursday. He wants to hear about the state of their Albertson's acquisition. The deal could be in trouble, because the FTC isn't merger-friendly.
proposed merger Kroger is buying Albertson's, but the White House won't allow it, he thinks. The deal is worth $24.6 billion. Now, he's changing his mind. If the deal goes through, then Albertson's will gain huge. Both stocks have been lagging before this deal. Together, they would have a lot of heft with suppliers, boosting free cash flow and lower admin costs (among other benefits), reaching $1 billion in synergies in four years (say the companies). They would be the second-largest grocer in the U.S. But the merger of Albertson's and Safeway was a disaster, and the FTC definitely remembers that. It will be a long slog (the chances don't look good).
Skinny margins in the grocery sector, so management is key, especially with inflation. A healthier balance sheet and better growth prospects than others in the space.
It reports Thursday. It had a miserable period of underperformance, but followed with consistently good numbers despite the pandemic. But rising prices from suppliers may force Kroger to raise their own prices which will hurt margins...and share price.
(A Top Pick Nov 18/20, Up 21.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with KR has triggered its stop at $40. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment return over 21%. We will monitor for another entry level in the future.
EPS of 93c beat estimates of 91c; revenue of $33.91B marginally missed estimates. Kroger appears well-positioned to navigate an increasingly complex consumer-spending environment. Mainstream households led sales growth in fiscal 2Q amid loyal households and increased visits, a trend that could extend in 3Q, aiding same-store sales gains. Volume expansion appears to be slowly improving, buoyed by strategic promotions. Private-label product sales growth outpaced that of national brands, helping bolster gross margin, which the company believes will expand slightly for the full year, yet might be flat in 3Q. Kroger indicated adjusted EPS in 3Q could be slightly stronger than in 4Q. The company noted that e-commerce profitability is improving, boosted by more orders for its delivery network and store pickup. KR lowered its CEO pay by 18% recently, and it does vary on performance. He needs to get by on $15.7 million total compensation this year. Excessive, but at least it varies with performance, and we have seen much worse.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free