Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings

Opinions

John O'Connell, CFAKelt ExplorationKEL.TOPAST TOP PICKOct 25, 2016

(A Top Pick July 13/15. Down 22.95%.) One of the top “go to” stocks in the oil/gas business. It has had a tough time because of the commodity, but they have come out of this downturn larger, stronger and better financed than it was 2 years ago. This has a very good growth profile and has enormous resources. It is right in the sweet spot of where everybody wants to be, in the liquids rich natural gas. A low-cost operator and has one of the largest exposures to land out there. For the last 3-years they have been accumulating a massive land package and growing their production. They are now in the development stage where you are going to start to see dramatic production growth.

John O'Connell, CFA

Owned

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$6.41

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$9.50

As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.

oilgas

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SELL

Great CEO. Doesn't do share buybacks. Two main assets, and timing a sale is very difficult for an investor. A bit small for him. Better names for a potential M&A play.

BUY

Has deep assets, which they won't sell for 9-12 months, as they add others. He can't own every midcap, though this is good.

BUY

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

KEL has strong drilling activity and currently no debt.
We have KEL in the growth model portfolio, and we like it for its diversification benefits, being in the oil and gas sector.
It is a strong name with a good balance sheet and healthy profit margins.
It trades at a 1.0X price to book, and a 7.5X forward P/E.
KEL does not pay a dividend.
KEL is a good name for strong consistency, low debt levels, and a strong balance sheet.
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BUY

Well run. Their theme is acquire land, develop it, drill it as efficiently as possible to bring up cashflow to realize NAV, sell it when it's de-risked. Management owns about 20% of it. Continues to like it, especially if you want a Canadian gas name.

COMMENT

Difficult to measure their new strategy. They have done great in the past, but this does not fit what he is trying to accomplish right now.

BUY

Management owns a large component of the company. Exposure to nat gas, with the current pricing very attractive.

BUY

He's ashamed to say he's owned this for a long time. He believes in management which owns a lot of shares. They allocate capital well. They find hydrocarbons and have a great track record selling those. A year and a half ago they sold half their production for more than the enterprise value of the whole company. They now have a great balance sheet and are growing their production in nat gas (in NE B.C.).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 19/20, Up 95%) Got penalized from their sale of an asset. However, now it is a debt free company and pursuing another area. Does not fit the free cashflow narrative, but it is inexpensive on cashflow. 3.3x multiple at $70 oil.

BUY

Has always been an aggregator of plays and then sells them. Just sold their anchor property. Currently developing their Oak property to sell in the future. They have good liquids exposure. Trades at a modest premium with 3.6x enterprise value to cashflow next year at $60 oil. A very unique story. Buying for the potential value of their future plays. Good candidate for the ESG movement.

DON'T BUY

They sold major assets mid-last year at a decent price (though lower than they would now), so they're sitting on net cash now. Their drilling program runs until Q3 he thinks. There are better oil stocks with more upside.

DON'T BUY

Not a holding now. They paid off all their debt by selling some assets. They are at a net cash position. In the short term there is no reason to own the stock due to lack of catalyst.

WATCH

Insiders are buying more of the stock. They sold their primary asset. It's up to the team to show that the rest of the assets are as good quality. The streets are sceptic. If the well economics are the same, we will see a rerating.

DON'T BUY

He held it for a number of years. With the current backdrop, they are doing as well as they can. Management is good. They had to sell some of their assets for less than he thought it was worth. The valuation is compelling but there are opportunities in the near-term.

TOP PICK

The stock is down 70% this year on fear of their bank line, which is now fully drawn. They have applied for government loans -- one of the first in the patch to do so. At $40 oil they generate free cash flow. When the market is ready for a corporate sale, you could see a $4 stock price. Conoco-Phillips has been active along the fence line beside them and it could be a good target. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.21)

BUY

It's his only oil stock. Their relationship with their bankers is strong, so he's not worried about that. They were under-levered going into the lockdown. They can monetize one of their world-class assets if they wish to, but he doesn't see pressure to. A better oil price would help, of course. Among mid/small-caps, this is a comfortable one to own.

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John O'Connell, CFAKelt ExplorationKEL.TOPAST TOP PICKOct 25, 2016

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