Paul VanEeden
Potash One Inc.
KCL-T
SELL
May 29, 2009
Potash has held its price up because of supply reductions from Potash (POT-T) and Russians. Sceptical that they can keep that game going. Expecting a revolt in the potash sector that will bring prices down. Should tread very lightly around any company that will need funding.
Hasn't proven itself yet because it hasn't developed a significant land position. BHP Billiton (BHP-N) just announced it was acquiring Athabasca Potash (API-T) and this leaves this company as the last junior potash company in Canada of any significant size so could be a takeout candidate and there would be upside here.
(Market Call Minute.) Long-term, potash will do well. This is one of the more advanced juniors but their project will take what a few years so by as a lottery ticket..
We are right back at the May 2009 level. Today’s action looks quite positive. It’s a one-day reversal. It could just be the equivalent of profit taking but in the reverse. You need to see more days up.
Where a company does not have a backstop of strong cash flow and strong profitability, it is probably better to consider more diversified alternatives for playing the longer-term prospects of global agriculture such as Global Agriculture ETF (COW-T) or a materials ETF.
Stock had a big jump today. Potash (POT-T) is getting a lot of play, which is affecting other potash companies. When the feeding frenzy around Potash dies off, the stock price can settle down very quickly.
Being acquired by a German Company in 2011 could stir up excitement in the potash area. Looked at the stock a few days ago but didn’t see it as a good investment,
Just received a bid from K+S for $4.50 a share and management is in support of the deal. Doesn’t see another buyer coming in. If you own, take the offer.
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