Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money J.B. Hunt Transport Servces JBHT-Q DON'T BUY Jul 17, 2024

Yesterday, it reported very weak numbers, like operating volume -24% YOY and operating revenues -7% YOY. Management blamed higher insurance and certain personnel expenses. They don't give guidance. The investor call went badly. Shares tanked 7% today. Is -18% this year.

$163.890

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
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DON'T BUY
They report Friday. America's third-biggest trucking company. They have a hard time finding drivers for them and many companies. Maybe pay your drivers more. It was downgraded from hold to sell recently by a major firm.
COMMENT
They report Wednesday. Listen for any signs of slowing in shipping.
BUY
Had a negative quarter with profit falling short by 17% and revenue growth missed expectations. It peaked in March 2020 and thrived during Covid (all transports did), but then plunged after demand dried up suddenly after Covid ended. It's taken a long time to work off the inventory glut and inflation hasn't helped. Shares peaked before their business peaked. Therefore, shares will bottom before the actual business bottoms. The recent conference call said that this glut is ending. Good news. The call said that the second half of 2023 will be better.
DON'T BUY

It was expected that earnings would be awful--and were. Management was not confident at all about its outlook. They're feeling the pain of a freight recession.

WATCH

They reported a mixed quarter last night: slight beat in sales due to strength in intermodal business, but a big earnings miss. Yet, it opened higher this morning. The freight market has been horrible the past two years. Hunt's CEO however made encouraging comments about intermodal shipping (half of JBHT's business), citing volume increases last October-December of 6-8% monthly, with an uptick at the end of the year. Rising volumes will eventually trickle to the bottom line. Skeptics note that disruptions in Red Sea shipping benefitted Hunt. The CEO says he doesn't know the impact of the Red Sea yet. Earnings missed because of $53 million of higher costs (rocketing insurance rates). Verdict: the turn in trucking is just beginning and needs time to play out. Also rising freight costs will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates. But when the business cycle starts rolling, you can make great money from the trucking stocks.

WATCH

They report Thursday. He likes it. It's a barometer of the economy. Watch their report.