Opinions Eric Nuttall
Headwater Exploration Inc. HWX.TOBUYMar 11, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 03, 2026. Market Open.
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Phenomenally well run. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater, which is the most economic play in NA and it keeps getting better. Experimenting with water flooding, as have other companies, and the results have been spectacular. Generates lots of free cashflow. An emerging play in the Grand Rapids formation is exciting for future growth.
Trades at 8.4x this year's cashflow, a huge premium to peers. Ticks all the boxes except valuation. Better spot would be 7x, perhaps 8x at a stretch. For new $$, investors could look at TVE.
It is an under-the-radar company in Clearwater which is an economic heavy oil play. It has a very good land position with a multi year inventory of production assets. It is well managed and he is looking for a good upside of 35% in the stock price. Buy 7 Hold 2 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $8.72)
Company's done nothing wrong, excellent balance sheet. Hard-pressed to find an oil company stock chart that's up while oil is down. Still believes in the great strides it's making. Yield is ~7%, fully defendable down to ~$53/barrel. Total return will be fine, even if oil price is not doing too well.
Dennis da SilvaA high-quality small-cap. They've had good success with water floods. They pay a sustainable 7% dividend yield. You're paid to wait. Overall, he's neutral to bearish on oil for 9 months. The market needs to absorb the OPEC supply. HWX is debt-free.
Eric NuttallSmall-cap yielding 8%, sustainable in low $50s. Wouldn't be surprised if it dialed back capex, which makes the dividend even more sustainable. Almost a pure play to Clearwater, an exceptional resource. Owns in his income fund, on his list to add to the main fund. Inexpensive. Respected management.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with HWX has triggered its stop at $7. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with our previous recommendation this will result in a net investment gain of 2%.
Great little small-cap name. Ongoing exploration success. A lot more running room. Should be trading at 70-80% upside from here. Yield is 6%.
Eric NuttallLarge selloff recently after a momentum frenzy in the sector, he added. Now about a 5.5% weight for him. Targets $11 price, 51% upside. Yield is 5.5%, which will grow over time.
Eric NuttallPremium contentWe reiterate HWX as a TOP PICK. Management reports production remains on target for annualized production of 20,000 boe/d for 2024 and capital has been allocated on several projects for the balance of the year. It trades at 11x earnings and supports a 27% ROE. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow, which still allows quarterly cash flow to grow. We recommend trailing up the stop from $6.25 to $7.00, looking to achieve $9.00 -- upside potential of 20%. Yield 5.4%
(Analysts’ price target is $9.32)Checks the boxes: quality management, strong balance sheet and have decent inventories.
Eric NuttallPremium content
Very well-run mid-cap, yielding 7.5%. Other stocks may have better valuations, but HWX has done a great job in the Clearwater, but prefers Tamarack. They have several successful explorations to expand their assets. This offers modest production growth and a juicy yield. He targets $9.