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Dennis da Silva Headwater Exploration Inc. HWX-T PAST TOP PICK Nov 15, 2023

(A Top Pick Apr 26/23, Up 27%)

High growth, about 40% production growth in 2023. Great ROC potential. Very well run. CEO change by year's end. Lots of running room. Good scalability. Expects a takeover in 12-18 months. Yields around 5%.

$7.470

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 30/24, Up 20.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HWX is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $4.75) to $6.25 at this time.  

BUY

Checks the boxes: quality management, strong balance sheet and have decent inventories.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate HWX as a TOP PICK.  Management reports production remains on target for annualized production of 20,000 boe/d for 2024 and capital has been allocated on several projects for the balance of the year.  It trades at 11x earnings and supports a 27% ROE.  Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow, which still allows quarterly cash flow to grow.  We recommend trailing up the stop from $6.25 to $7.00, looking to achieve $9.00 -- upside potential of 20%.  Yield 5.4%

(Analysts’ price target is $9.32)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 31/23, Up 18%)

Large selloff recently after a momentum frenzy in the sector, he added. Now about a 5.5% weight for him. Targets $11 price, 51% upside. Yield is 5.5%, which will grow over time.

BUY

Great little small-cap name. Ongoing exploration success. A lot more running room. Should be trading at 70-80% upside from here. Yield is 6%.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 07/24, Down 5.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with HWX has triggered its stop at $7.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  When combined with our previous recommendation this will result in a net investment gain of 2%.

BUY

Very well-run mid-cap, yielding 7.5%. Other stocks may have better valuations, but HWX has done a great job in the Clearwater, but prefers Tamarack. They have several successful explorations to expand their assets. This offers modest production growth and a juicy yield. He targets $9.

BUY

Small-cap yielding 8%, sustainable in low $50s. Wouldn't be surprised if it dialed back capex, which makes the dividend even more sustainable. Almost a pure play to Clearwater, an exceptional resource. Owns in his income fund, on his list to add to the main fund. Inexpensive. Respected management.

BUY

A high-quality small-cap. They've had good success with water floods. They pay a sustainable 7% dividend yield. You're paid to wait. Overall, he's neutral to bearish on oil for 9 months. The market needs to absorb the OPEC supply. HWX is debt-free.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/24, Up 0.16%)

Company's done nothing wrong, excellent balance sheet. Hard-pressed to find an oil company stock chart that's up while oil is down. Still believes in the great strides it's making. Yield is ~7%, fully defendable down to ~$53/barrel.  Total return will be fine, even if oil price is not doing too well.