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Don Vialoux Horizons Gold ETF HUG-T PAST TOP PICK Dec 22, 2017

(A Top Pick Aug 25/17. Down 1.84%.) Gold and gold stocks have 2 periods of seasonal strength. One is from the end of July until the end of September, and then it goes down, bottoms around the middle of December and then goes higher until February. This year gold and gold bullion peaked a little early, around the middle of September. The worst period to own gold and gold equities is from October through to December.

Don Vialoux

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TOP PICK

This holds gold itself. Most portfolios don't hold gold. It provides stability in a portfolio in, say, deflation, and offers returns. You can also hold gold stocks themselves.

TOP PICK

He sees gold going up. We’re starting the seasonality now. The chart is affected by low interest rates. The seasonal period is usually driven by Chinese demand. China was a bigger consumer than India. Towards end of December, it could be a good time to take initial positions. This is a good way to play the bullion.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 06/19, Up 7%) It holds the bullion. (He works for Horizons.) Gold has done quite well, with a big rally in mid-2019 when interest rates fell. Late-December into late-January is gold's seasonality, which is happening. We could see a breakout due to strong interest in gold. We could see upside.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 01/19, Up 22%) Stick with this. He's bullish gold. As balance sheets expand from central bank stimulus, gold production remains constant and fixed. So, gold assets will continue to rise. Gold responds well in deflationary times, holding its own. HUG gives you access to gold. The MER, he believes, has been slashed from 75 to 25 basis points. He'd buy even more of this.

COMMENT

XGD vs. HUG and the impact of the November election XGD is the granddaddy of gold ETF wth top holdings being Newmont, Barrick and FNV, totalling 40%. Given this weighting, he prefers HEP. HUG holds the actual gold. He doesn't know how the US election will effect gold stocks, which is why people buy gold--a reaction to uncertainty.

TOP PICK

More room to run, though we might see a pullback. Gold trades off different factors like geo-political tensions. Inflation expectations have been moving up. A good strategy is to have gold bullion as the core and an ETF for the miners. He has more bullion right now, as the market may be coming up to some volatility. No dividend.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 29/19, Up 26%) Uses futures contracts, not physical gold. Gold does well in an inflationary environment.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 05/20, Down 16%) We have seen gold decrease. He does not hold gold at this point. It has underperformed since last August due to rising rates. On a seasonal basis there are times when gold does well and we have just passed one of them. The next one is July 12th to the beginning of October. Gold is not the place to be from a seasonal perspective.

BUY

Gold ETF and outlook? Careful because gold stock beta and gold beta are different. Better to buy gold itself, like this ETG or HUG-T which is cheaper and offers some tax saving.

TOP PICK

Gold got a strong bump up this year (driven by central bank buying), now pulled back a bit. Central banks are continuing to buy, but we haven't seen a lot of interest in gold from investors yet. Gold could pick up, some hot money could start to move in at some point in 2025. Gold will probably have another good year next year. Interest rates coming down would help gold move higher. Strong seasonal period from December into January/February.

Disclosure: He works for Global X (formerly Horizons).

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Don Vialoux Horizons Gold ETF HUG-T PAST TOP PICK Dec 22, 2017

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