Stock price when the opinion was issued
Interest rates cuts are stalling, so shares are -7.74% the past month; housing turnover and the weather have been bad. Tool sales are down. It reports tomorrow, but he will buy after that report. He has faith, because when the street was shorting this in 2008's housing crisis, HD gained market share and bought back a ton of shares.
Last September, he sold and took profits. Shares are trading ~24x forward PE, for 5% EPS growth. Valuation's expensive. EPS growth rate expectations have come down. Cautious spending by consumers, stock's slipped below 200-day MA. Long-term inflation is dampening the DIYers, sluggish home sales. A name to own early economic cycle, and we're about mid-way through now.
Covid saw overspending by consumers, then underspending, now normalizing. Rising interest rates have affected lower-income US households, and that's showing up in HD traffic numbers. In US, over 50% of homes are over 40 years old; long-term secular trend to repair and modernize.
She would consider buying both. LOW-N brought in a new management team with a lot of self-help initiatives to closed the gap, but HD-N has also been very strong and both are a home-run in the area. The recession just keeps getting pushed out