Opinions
Paul Harris, CFA
Gap
GPS-N
DON'T BUY
Aug 30, 2018
$30.150
Stock price when the opinion was issued
specialty stores
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SELL
He sold 20 positions and now has his highest cash position (over 60%) since 2008. The reason is that he doesn't know what will happen with the economy and is bracing for a big decline if that happens. If so, he will buy back these shares at a lot lower price. He sold Gap, among others. He often gets Gap emails touting 60-70% off. He sold many retailers, because he expects them to slash prices to move inventory. Higher interest rates are another worry.
specialty stores
WEAK BUY
Really suffering today, despite the good print. Company estimated $300M in costs due to tariffs, but that tariffs will be neutral in the long term. If you're looking for a retail stock, a good name to buy now.
But is retail a good thing to own? It's a very tough trade, just like airlines. You have to be right, and it's very economically sensitive. Jeff Bezos says that, eventually, all retailers go broke.
specialty stores
The problem with this company and all these clothing stores is that it is very difficult to compete. Space is expensive. The ones that do well are the ones that go online. They are fighting a very difficult secular trend that is happening in the industry.