Stockchase Opinions

Michael Smedley Fortis Inc. FTS-T COMMENT Aug 06, 2014

He has no problems whatsoever with this one. 3.8% dividend yield. This is for a buy-and-hold investor who is looking for safety.

$33.680

Stock price when the opinion was issued

electrical utilities
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WAIT
At 52-week high, safe haven from Trump's antics?

Everybody's been crowding into what's been working. Bond proxy, not too challenged by Trump tariffs. Great long-term compounder. Raises dividend every year, by ~5%. Good long-term growth. Q4 beat. Steady player, without all the ups and downs.

One knock is that it's only growing 5%, but trading at 17x. So, no, don't buy at this level. In the space it's time to look at AQN again (believe it or not), GEI, or ALA.

HOLD

She likes this name, mainly because of its geographic diversification. Also has more US utilities than peers, growing just a little bit faster.

SELL

Great company. Has raised dividend forever, but dividend growth is slow at only 3-4% a year. Fine for the dividend. But for dividend and growth he'd lean toward a large-cap resource producer generating tons of cash, which would give much better inflation protection. Or go with a bank (such as JPM or a Canadian bank).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 18/24, Up 27%)

Today, this would be a hold. Currently above his buy price, wait for a pullback for new $$. People ran toward defensive names recently. Yield is 3.8%.

TOP PICK

Good long-term hold for income. Regulated natural gas and electric utility. Over 1/2 of revenues come from the US. Diversified. Very defensible and visible cashflow stream because it's regulated. Increased dividend for 51 consecutive years. In regions where data centres are being built. Yield is 3.81%.

(Analysts’ price target is $67.50)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Dividend choice for an 18-year-old to hold forever.

Young investors don't care as much about dividend stocks, but they're really important. It's like collecting rent, instead of making money only once you sell a stock. The earlier they start, the more they reap the benefit of the compounding effect that takes place after 10, 20, 30 years of investing. Compounding is such a powerful tool.

It's hard to pick just one, as she likes a diversified portfolio. This name would be her second choice, after CNQ, because it's a little expensive right now. Stable utility growing 5-7% a year. Try to get it at a better price. Longest track record in Canada of dividend increases. Diversified jurisdictions. Increase in power demand is growing exponentially. Gives you exposure to AI but in a safer way, by owning the companies that produce the power.

BUY

Great, regulated industry. $25B capex spend past 2 years to improve infrastructure; in Canada, this lets them charge a higher rate base if properties appreciate in value. Means more profit in their pockets -- pay down debt, improve the dividend.

BUY

Likes the regulated utilities. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes the company, but there's little growth. Prefers something diversified like ZWU-T. Would be interested if shares fall below $63.

HOLD
Bought on the April dip, but stock hasn't done much. Sell?

If you bought in April around $55 and today it's trading ~$72, that's about 10+%. Plus you get a 3-4% dividend yield, with 3-4% dividend growth. Pretty good for a regulated utility, and he's happy to own a company that puts out high-single or low-double digit returns sustainably every year. There aren't many companies more durable than this one.

Lots of growth ahead, but it won't be 20% a year. He'd rather have 8-10% total return a year for 20 years than 20% for 3 years (and after that who knows what happens?). Shows what the expectations are out there, everyone's looking for bigger pops.