Stockchase Opinions

Cameron Hurst FedEx FDX-N DON'T BUY Oct 03, 2019

UPS-N had some interesting news with the FFA approval of their drone delivery business. FDX-N is a few PE multiple points cheaper. UPS has had a positive trend change. FDX has been pulling back again. He prefers UPS if you had to. But neither one is really doing well. Global growth is the most important indicator for both companies and it is not favourable.
$141.710

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

TOP PICK

Typically cyclical, but two trucking companies have recently gone bankrupt. Reshoring will increase trucking, whether less-than-load or full load. Maryland bridge accident stopped a lot of ship traffic, so that should increase demand for rail and trucking at least temporarily. 

International business, which is growing faster than domestic. Likes management. Huge share buybacks. Guided to $17 EPS this year, he thinks can jump easily into $20s by next year. Best operator in the space worldwide. Not a huge valuation. Decent yield of 1.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $309.61)
SELL

He sold FedEx to buy more Apollo. FedEx talked about longer-term costs cuts last quarter, which lifted shares, but cost-cutting is now in the stock. Topline revenue declines are expected next week when they report. The stock hasn't done anything this year.

BUY

They reported a strong quarter last night and shares jumped 15% today, but what really caught the street's eye was the large share buyback they announced. It shows confidence.

BUY

They report Thursday. Is in a big turnaround, cutting costs and growing revenues. The CEO is pulling it off.

DON'T BUY

It's underperformed UPS, but shares have recovered a lot this year due to new management. Merging fleet and air operations helped by lowering costs. They have problems with overseas margins. Prefers Cargojet.

COMMENT

It reports Thursday. They're working hard to reduce costs and improve gross margins. This is a nervous period for them because of the coming holiday season.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 7%)

He sold it at $295 recently. Loves the company, but earnings revisions came down. He bought at $262. He may re-buy it if the price and valuation are right. FedEx is a dominant player and the management team proves they can execute. The founder family still owns a lot of shares, and such families don't make crazy decision to preserve their stake. Also, cost savings and a huge share buyback are plusses. Also, they have fewer unionized employees than UPS.

DON'T BUY

Dominated by international and air freight. Today, he'd lean toward a domestic provider like UPS.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It doesn't do anything with Amazon, contrary to rumours. Shares are down 5% in the past week, but the CEO is doing a fine job. 

COMMENT
But this dip now or wait for their report

The CEO is doing a fine job in a very difficult time with all these tariffs. A very good company though can't advise buying a stock that went up 10% today [note: the wider market was up 10% too].