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Craig Porter Fibrek Inc. FBK-T WEAK BUY Mar 11, 2004

Pulp has been battered for the last few years so they had to cut distributions. Recently, we have seen the commodity bottom. Looking for a price increase which will benefit this company. Pulp demand is going up.

Craig Porter

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$8.270

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Forestry

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DON'T BUY

Highly cyclical. Canada is becoming less competitive in the global market in exporting pulp.

TOP PICK

Pulp prices have been low. chip prices have risen. Chip prices are moderating. Pulp prices may rise 15-20%

TRADE

In an industry that has a history of being very volatile.

TOP PICK

(Past top pick Feb 5/04. Up 13%.) Expects pulp prices to move higher and distributions will be increased.

DON'T BUY

A very good mill and a low cost producer. A single asset type of trust with some volatility, so if anything should go wrong with that facility, they won't have cash flow. Demand for pulp has gone up and prices are near their cyclical highs.

DON'T BUY

A cyclical. Will be volatile. Distributions will rise and fall.

DON'T BUY

Have avoided this one because they don't like deeply cyclical plays. Some risks, but OK if you want to take a chance on the price of pulp.

DON'T BUY

A pulp mill in Quebec. Has a couple of issues. 1) Pulp pricing has not been vibrant due to competition out of South America/Asia and 2) Quebec has cut the allowable timber cut.

DON'T BUY

Has exposure to NBSK (Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft) pulp. Is unhedged, so if you are bullish on the Cdn$, it would be good. Not sure where pulp prices are going, so doesn't own. Also concerned about their input costs on woodchips. If pulp prices improve, he might have a different view.

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Craig Porter Fibrek Inc. FBK-T WEAK BUY Mar 11, 2004

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