Stockchase Opinions

David Burrows iShares MSCI Mexico E.T.F. EWW-N PAST TOP PICK Jan 23, 2014

(A Top Pick Jan 7/13. Down 9.6%.) His expectation was that as the US economy recovered Mexico was likely to come along with it. Didn’t work out as well as he had hoped. Got stopped out at around $70 a share.

$63.880

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

The Mexican economy is tied to the US. He thinks just buying Mexican real estate could be better. [caller was going to move to Mexico].

BUY

How to play Mexico. Civil unrest related to drug trade is there, but he thinks there is nothing wrong with buying it.

WAIT

Mexico – is it a good time to get in? What fund? Currency is your biggest risk. The peso has depreciated against the US dollar. It is not a pure energy trade like Canada often is. Telecoms and Banks don’t benefit from lower currency. Mexico exports energy. It is not the time to get in yet.

WATCH

It is in a distinct downward trend, not performing as per seasonality. There are some signs of bottoming, but you want more conforming technical evident before entering.

STRONG BUY

Sold off because of the election in the US. There is a nice little reverse head and shoulders pattern. It is finally showing some good technical action. Seasonally, it is strong from mid-October until the end of May of each year.

COMMENT

Mexico. An emerging market you should trade rather than hold. You get exposure to telecom, beverage, financials and even Walmart Mexico. Fits into the general theme of emerging markets. Must believe that the Mexican pesos will improve, probably due to oil strength.

DON'T BUY
EWW includes cell phone companies and banks; it's not a terribly sexy cyclical ETF. If oil stays at these levels, then Mexico remains an interesting investment. For the time being, EM is under pressure given the rise of the USD.
RISKY

Some are bullish on Mexico, in part because of the agreement between Canada, US, and Mexico. Plus, a lot of companies are opening up factories there -- lower labour costs and avoiding China's supply chain issues. There's a bullish case for investing in Mexico.

His only concern is that it's pretty much a narco-state. Police officers are being kidnapped by drug lords, tourists are held at gunpoint. Mexico has issues, all related to drugs. All it would take is a couple of terrorist attacks and tourism will dry up. 

Looks good in terms of fundamentals, but you have to be cautious. Only for people who are willing to be more aggressive.

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EWW would be our suggestion here. Up 29% YTD, assets are $1.7B, fees 0.50%, yield 1.44%. We think the thesis makes good sense. 
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