Tim Regan Empire Company (A) EMP.A-T DON'T BUY Jul 19, 2018

Very expensive, trading up near maximums. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.

Defensive. Owned it a while ago, but Loblaw offers better value, the Shoppers chain, exposure to cities, and better efficiencies. Neither pays a good dividend, but Empire's chart looks attractive now for the short term. 

Turned around Safeway acquisition. Inflation has helped food pricing. Canadian population growth. All the grocery chains own the best locations. Underperformed this year. Valuation much more attractive. Has always logged Loblaw, perhaps because EMP.A has a more confusing structure.

Good time in economic cycle for this business. Expecting a pop in this stock. Demand for consumer staples will be strong. Would a good company to own for the long term. 

Nice support level was momentarily cracked, which would have scared people like him if he were holding the stock. Recovered, fantastic news. Look at next levels of resistance, around $38. If that breaks, you'll get into old resistance levels of $41-42, and there's a decent chance of this. Looks OK, 7/10. 

The black sheep of Canada's big three grocers, but recent results were pretty good and that's raised the stock. Are improving costs and being more efficient. Same-store sales growth is flat, though. They lack a discount brand like Metro and Loblaw, and lack presence in pharmacies. That's why their PE is lower than their peers. Buy at $30-35, though. Well-managed, using technology well for deliveries.

Loves the grocery industry, an oligopoly. Well managed. Cheaper than MRU or L. Doesn't have as many discount banners, not many pharmacies. Still good value at these prices, good turnaround, it's looking for expansion opportunities. Farm Boy acquisition going well. He owns Loblaw.

The ultimate winner in inflation. Tough business, low margins, competitive. He owns COST. Loblaw is well run, as are MRU and EMP.A

Loblaw is the best, so that's the one he wants to own.

We try not to use target sell prices too much as it typically results in investors too early. Often, there are valid reasons for a move and selling just because a stock hits a somewhat random price does not make sense to us. EMP.A is a quality stable company doing well. Its recent dip makes it more attractive, and insider buying is positive. We would be quite comfortable buying in the $48.50 range. We would review it on news items or if it rose to $55+. Lower interest rates should help the stock.
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