Dell ComputersDELLBUY ON WEAKNESSJun 03, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Earnings are surprisingly strong. Dell is clearly taking share from Super Micro Computer as the data centre build-out takes shape. Their backlog grew, raised guidance, and infrastructure services grew 181% over a year. Also, there's a huge share buyback, but we're still in early days. Earnings and margins will continue to be strong with these data centre names. Revenues have been growing 20% annually consistently. Demand is strong and will endure.
The 30x forward PE is justified, given strong earnings. He doesn't know how long this momentum will last, but he wouldn't jump off the ship today. The hyperscalers have so much free cash flow to keep buying. If the ROI doesn't emerge later, then this momentum could come to a stop, but he expects this to keep momentum to keep going for a few years.
The only reason to own this is for its infrastructure services group, which is key to the data centre build-out. Is growing 25% annually. Their PC business is anemic in past years, but is priced into shares. Are buying back shares, great CEO/founder, and important to data centres. Expect 15-20% return if the AI narrative is positive, but if negative, this will slide with the cohort.
Was downgraded today on the basis of short-term margin compression, which she feels is likely due to the sharp increase in memory prices. But she thinks Dell is taking market share from SMCI in data centres (Dell's infrastructure services group, specifically) and will continue to. Earnings next week should provide clarity and potentially a buy.
It's disappointed. It's well-positioned in tech, including semis, but hasn't executed. It missed earnings a few times. It has rebounded a lot from his early April lows. He sold it. But it should benefit from what's happening in tech. There are better names out there.
They reported last Thursday. Shares plunged 18% and another 5% today. It was priced for perfection and shares were in a hot rally in previous quarters leading up that report. Expectations were too high and maybe their AI business may not be as profitable as expected. That said, sales momentum is strong and their AI server backlog is up 30% over the past quarter, but isn't driving earnings much yet. The pullback is healthy given the overheated rally before. The AI story is on track but could take a little longer to play out. He still likes it.