Dell ComputersDELLBUY ON WEAKNESSMar 04, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Earnings are surprisingly strong. Dell is clearly taking share from Super Micro Computer as the data centre build-out takes shape. Their backlog grew, raised guidance, and infrastructure services grew 181% over a year. Also, there's a huge share buyback, but we're still in early days. Earnings and margins will continue to be strong with these data centre names. Revenues have been growing 20% annually consistently. Demand is strong and will endure.
The 30x forward PE is justified, given strong earnings. He doesn't know how long this momentum will last, but he wouldn't jump off the ship today. The hyperscalers have so much free cash flow to keep buying. If the ROI doesn't emerge later, then this momentum could come to a stop, but he expects this to keep momentum to keep going for a few years.
The only reason to own this is for its infrastructure services group, which is key to the data centre build-out. Is growing 25% annually. Their PC business is anemic in past years, but is priced into shares. Are buying back shares, great CEO/founder, and important to data centres. Expect 15-20% return if the AI narrative is positive, but if negative, this will slide with the cohort.
Was downgraded today on the basis of short-term margin compression, which she feels is likely due to the sharp increase in memory prices. But she thinks Dell is taking market share from SMCI in data centres (Dell's infrastructure services group, specifically) and will continue to. Earnings next week should provide clarity and potentially a buy.
It's disappointed. It's well-positioned in tech, including semis, but hasn't executed. It missed earnings a few times. It has rebounded a lot from his early April lows. He sold it. But it should benefit from what's happening in tech. There are better names out there.
DELL's forward PE is currently 16.3x and it was at about ~12x before the big jump it just had prior to its earnings release. DELL's recent earnings highlighted increasing demand for its AI servers and reported servers and networking revenue of $4.9B. DELL did see declines in other revenue segments such as the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) and Client Solutions Group (CSG) which highlight the general mature nature of the company. DELL is benfitting from AI tailwinds and while it is definitely a stable option at a good valuation, we would not necessarily characterize it as a growth name. With strong recent performance and also paying a small yield of 1.38%, we like DELL as a value name, however would not expect the same growth that it has had in the last year to be a long-term trend.
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