Opinions
Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA
Corby Spirit and Wine (A)
CSW.A-T
COMMENT
Mar 27, 2018
$19.500
Stock price when the opinion was issued
breweries
beverages
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 27/18, Down 6%) They had a special dividend at the end of 2018. He likes this a lot. Cannabis will likely cannabilize a lot of beer sales. In the U.S. beer sales are hit when a state legalizes weed, but not wine and spirits. They keep generating cash and special dividends.
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DON'T BUY
A solid company with a good balance sheet and nice yield. There is a modest opportunity for upside. Since 2012 they have traded between 2.5 and 3.5 times book, with a downward basis trend. The share price is unchanged in ten years and has added no value to investors in that time. He calls these stocks, "grazers" -- too comfortable to become "wolves". Nice company -- it is not going anywhere.
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COMMENT
A cash machine. Owned by Pernod-Ricard and pays a decent dividend. Occasionally, it pays a special dividend. Hard to know what the future is. A safe, defensive stock. Will Pernod buy it out and go private. It's fairly valued now if you own, you could sell, but overall the stock is okay.
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WATCH
Affinity for a product is different from investing in a stock. Don't touch until gets above $13.50. Stock seems to be pausing and could continue dropping, which would be confirmed by a drop below $12, and then you should get out. Thinly traded is a problem, as you don't want to buy a stock you can't get out of easily.
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This company is a real cash machine but low growth. This is mainly a marketing company for spirits. They are bringing on their own wine now. The company is controlled by Pernod Ricard in Europe. There has been ongoing speculation that the company would take itself private but that hasn’t happened and is not likely to. Every few years they pay a huge dividend because Pernod Ricard has a lot of debt. He much prefers the growth prospects of other companies that sell and market their own products. They’ve tried some initiatives to grow, such as selling product in the US (which was a failure). The dividend is very safe but it is unlikely to appreciate dramatically.