Stockchase Opinions

Crypto Talk with Terence Bitcoin (BTCUSD) CRYPTO:BTC RISKY Feb 09, 2022

VOLCANO BONDS OF EL SALVADOR

On September 07, 2021, El Salvador formalized BTC as its national currency. Since then, President Nayib Bukele has not stopped encouraging and announcing new and promising projects in the world of crypto-currencies.
One of these projects is the use of BTC to issue government bonds.

Indeed, in November 2021, the president announced the upcoming creation of a futuristic city, insisting that the financing of this structure should be done through the issuance of bonds: Volcano bonds.
According to local sources, El Salvador is almost ready to issue bonds. The Minister of Finance said that the preparation phase of the issue should be completed by March 20, 2022. When this phase is completed, the country will be fully ready to issue its bonds, which will be worth $1 billion.

It is important to point out that the big difference of these bonds is that they will be able to be purchased in BTC or other cryptocurrencies, democratizing access to all participants of the crypto ecosystem.
The bonds will also be listed on the stock exchange and accessible to anyone willing to invest a minimum of $100.

After making history as the first country in the world to nationalize BTC, El Salvador is taking another step forward by becoming the first country to issue debt via crypto-currency. Not missing thus to taunt the IMF which had tried to force the reversal of the president towards conventional currencies, but had only reinforced his desire for sovereignty for his country.

$44430.940

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Cryptocurrencies
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BUY

CRYPTO UPDATE

The triangle we spotted on Bitcoin was very effective and broke its resistance with a nice candlestick that made it take almost 6% in one day.

The take profit target is still located at $56,000, close to an important supply area (many sell orders pending in the order book). The price is currently operating a pull back on the resistance zone it broke recently, this is perfectly normal and occurs in about 60% of cases (Chartist analysis, by Francois Barron), this could also be a very good entry for investors who missed the low of the triangle and its breakout (we can also wait for the breakout of the last high.

Investors who took position at the low or middle of the triangle currently have a nice profit (+20-10% at the time of writing, +30-20% at the high), and can expect much more, if the pattern materializes until the end. The most sensitive (and they are right) to money management have already moved their stop loss beyond their entry point, and can no longer, regardless of future developments, lose money.

It is interesting to note the high correlation between Bitcoin and other cryptos. Indeed, since the break of the triangle on Bitcoin, the main other cryptos have all experienced interesting gains this week, including Ethereum (which also broke a triangle from above), and Solana (+60% for a week). The case of Solana is very interesting because we had two chartist figures, a triangle and a triple bottom that led to this rise of 60% in 1 week and 80% since March 11.

Although probabilistic, chartist analysis remains an extremely powerful tool to evolve with more confidence in the chaotic financial markets, no matter what the detractors say, provided of course to retain this elementary but crucial rule that is missing to 90% of investors, and allowing to extend its life (in the financial markets) on the long term: to have a perfect control of its money management.

DON'T BUY
Is it a hedge against inflation? Fundamentally worth 0. Probably biggest Ponzi scheme of history. Can be traded. Can be correlated to an inflation hedge from time to time, but do not recommend to buy for diversification.
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Should you include crypto in your portfolio? Called Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme last week. Was incorrect, it doesn't fit the definition of a Ponzi scheme but gets boosted the more people get involved in it. The difference with stocks is that we cannot value crypto based on real principles. It is valued based on its scarcity (there is a limited amount of Bitcoins). You want to add something to your portfolio that has uncorrelated returns. Historically, correlation between Bitcoin and stock market was low. Since Covid, correlation has increased. Low correlation of Bitcoin comes at the cost of huge volatility. These are the points to keep in mind when deciding to include crypto in your portfolio.
BUY

Because of the ETFs, this will become scarce and so will go higher.

BUY

Doesn't see a use case for Bitcoin, but expects this to keep rising based on supply and demand. It's up 11% this week.

PARTIAL BUY

He pared some yesterday, as it had grown to a 6% position, making him very uncomfortable. Now he's at 2.5%. Didn't sell all, because seasonality starts early February, so you could take a small position now.  Will be volatile, susceptible to 5-10% swings. Has long-term applications.

BUY

His only speculative holding. Fidelity, Blackrock and other funds companies are rushing to market their crypto instruments, so he's still buying. Would not sell if it slid 15%, but would hold.

TRADE
Bitcoin falls from record highs

The momentum is gone now, but it has before. Bitcoin is very volatile, lacking fundamentals, so it trades purely on emotion.

RISKY
Bitcoin falls from record highs

It's had such a strong rally. By nature, this is volatile, so the sell-off is the price of admission.

RISKY

It trades like a future contract, and momentum is the most significant indicator. It's volatile.