John Stephenson
Calpine Corp
CPN-N
SELL
Oct 16, 2003
Doesn't see it rebounding anytime soon. It’s a merchant power plant constructor and operator. There is now too much supply in the US coming on stream all at the wrong time. Spreads have been collapsing. Large debt.
Very speculative investment. Could have a little bit of upside, but expect liquidity issues in the fourth quarter of 2004 when they have a $2 1/2-billion convertible bond due.
Has restructured its balance sheets significantly. As deregulated power in the US begins to recover, there should be some upside in the next 2/3 years. Risky.
Not a fan. Have done a lot of things right over the last year giving them about $2.5 billion of liquidity at year's end. Concerned with how they will finance their gas plants they are building. Margins will come under pressure.