Stock price when the opinion was issued
COIN is the main custodian for the bitcoin ETFs, and while the fees spread between its transaction fees and custodian fees is large, the volume from these ETFs in the future can more than offset this delta.
Retail trading volume is increasing on Coinbase, and while spot BTC ETFs are approved in the US, all other crypto needs to be traded on an exchange, such as COIN. Coinbase is the main crypto exchange in the US that is trusted, working with regulators, and is now being interwoven in the traditional finance world. Coinbase will receive fees from Ether staking, derivatives, futures, expansion into Europe, it has its own wallet, is working on payments integration, and has built its own layer 2 network on top of Ethereum, called Base. As activity on 'Base' increases, this will drive fees to COIN. As an industry leader in the crypto space, COIN has executed well on the operational front.
Bull case, as investor sentiment and interest in crypto increases once again, Coinbase will see significant inflows and sales, and it can also act as the future custodian for Ether ETFs (deadline May 2024).
Bear case, investors mainly gravitate towards ETF investing for crypto or interest and risk appetite for crypto products and the technology wanes.
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Coinbase is at the forefront of developing critical blockchain infrastructure and is really the main and only player in the US crypto space. COIN has helped to begin bridging the gap between the traditional finance world and the crypto network layer. For 2024 COIN aims to focus on driving revenue through improving its core trading and USDC (US dollar stablecoin), driving utility in crypto with experiments in payments using USDC and Base (its layer-2 chain), and drive regulatory clarity of the industry.
It launched a layer-2 network on the Ethereum blockchain called Base, which has seen transaction volume skyrocket over the past month, and it now has $1.5B in total value locked. The company continues to innovate by offering a coinbase smart wallet which allows for easy onboarding and storage of private keys for users. Through certain 'on-chain' metrics, we can see that trading volumes have surged in March 2024, and it is possible that Coinbase will have a strong Q1.
COIN is expecting to report in early May, although the date is not yet confirmed. Overall, as the leading centralized crypto ecosystem company in North America, we like COIN in the current market backdrop.
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At these levels, why buy this? Buy Bitcoin itself.