Stock price when the opinion was issued
He never buys a company on the expectation that it will be bought out. Good exposure to medium-heavy oil. Very manageable debt levels. Older, higher-cost assets, so it needs a higher than average oil price. If you don't care about capital appreciation and just want the juicy dividend, it's not the worst name.
For the mid-cap Canadian companies in the space with higher yields, be very careful. If you're looking for dividend sustainability, we've gone through a couple of cycles in the last decade -- dividends have been both increased and reduced. Yield is 11%.
In the space, he prefers FRU.
Outspending free cashflow, using debt to finance dividend, not his preference. Gets concerning if oil price drops. Not sustainable for the next year and a half. In 2026, the cadence of capex reduces and the dividend becomes sustainable. Yield is 10.1%.
Look elsewhere. You may sacrifice 2% on the dividend, but you're getting one that's much more sustainable.
Sentiment remains challenged in the space (a common theme today), even though the Energy Index is up about 20% YTD. People are hiding in large caps, with few funds coming to small- or mid-caps. Hard to see it outperforming. Yield is 10.7%, pretty hard to replace. Not a name for new money.
Look at his Top Picks today, and then decide if you want to let this go for tax-loss selling.
This has a reasonable yield, and he was looking for situation that had enough yield but with enough growth to give something extra. It has a very low decline rate, which means they don’t have to pump a lot of capital in the ground to keep their decline rate going. They are very good operators. It has an immaculate balance sheet, with very low debt. If the price of crude goes up even $5-$10, they will be big beneficiaries. Also the market cap is under $1 billion. When it gets to $1 billion, a lot of funds will buy it, giving it an extra kick. Dividend yield of 4.11%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.83.)