Opinions
Kash Pashootan
Caterpillar
CAT-N
DON'T BUY
May 03, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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CAT is $165B market cap, 17X earnings, 1.62% yield, 6.96% five year dividend growth, down 4% YTD, debt/cash flow about 3X, forward growth about 10%. DE is $135B, 25X earnings, 1.30% yield, 14.68% dividend growth, 5X debt/cash flow, forward growth 15%. We would consider both HOLDS today. While good companies, they will be vulnerable in a global economic decline, as both have been in prior cycles. Automation/AI will help margins, but this will take some time to show up in the numbers. Mining expansions (CAT) and weak spending (DE) will likely mean less-than-robust growth and/or weak sentiment for a period of time.
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Rough go recently. About 50% of production is domestic to the US. 35% of its business is recurring service revenue, encouraging. Questions around international business. If recession and tariffs are permanent, expect trouble.
If those clouds dissipate, this could be a good entry point. US administration has changed, but infrastructure renewal needs remain strong. What you could do is buy this, but barbell it with more defensive areas such as telcos, utilities, consumer staples.
Relative to what they’ve been through, this has really done well. 75% of revenues are global and they are in over 180 countries. Have had a few very tough years from an environment perspective, and have held up very well. Although things are turning around, he would not be a buyer. A lot of their business is in emerging market countries where brand isn’t as important as price, and their main competitor is much cheaper. The stock is way too expensive at around 30X PE.