Stockchase Opinions

Don Short Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. BXE-T TOP PICK Sep 22, 2010

Formerly True Energy Income Trust. Had a management change, paid down debt and refocused the assets. Main reason to own this one is their enviable land position in the Pembina/Cardium. Production has grown from 5600 barrels a day (2009) to 10,000 currently in still showing great momentum on the operational side.
$3.920

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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DON'T BUY
He thinks their financial flexibility is so constrained that he sees better choices out there. Why would he take on that added risk?
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 12/18, Down 57%) Under one times cash flow. People are worried about their debt, but he does not see a problem. He likes the company. It is a gift. He bought more.
DON'T BUY
Their debt is too high and lack the financial flexibility that others have. He sees other opportunities that do not have this balance sheet issue.
WATCH
Unbelievable numbers. Maturities of debt in 2021. 2018 cash flow was a $1.05 due to hedges. They have always done well with debtors. The stock is ridiculously cheap. He is comfortable with it and at this price it is a bargain. The market is nervous regarding the extension of the debt.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 80%) Problem is trying to renegotiate the debt due in the next year or two. So it had to do a restructuring and massive dilution of shares. Still generating cash flow. Sees upside. Could be a $1 stock a year from now. He's going to be adding. Likes management.
COMMENT
BNP and BXE Both are carrying high levels of debt. BNP-T has been paying down debt and will try to keep production flat. He intends to buy more of both. BXE-T will be doing a 12:1 reverse split on the shares sometime in June.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Down 94%) The whole thing about low energy prices and the debt restructuring meant the stock got beat up. He will be adding to this position. People need to see that they can service the debt and then see the price of nat. gas firm up.
RISKY
Stock is very cheap, but people are nervous about the debt. Production is robust, and Q2 should also be decent. It's now a small cap, and has been disowned by the market. Could be a $10 stock again with consistent $3 gas prices.
DON'T BUY

They are more levered towards natural gas. It all comes down to being able to live with the volatility. Anything related to Montney natural gas is betting on LNG, which may not come quickly enough. He would stay away.

COMMENT

Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult for companies to accept as it has provisions for up to 15% of ownership being made available in warrants to the government.