Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.BXE.TOBUYSep 12, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 08, 2019. Market Open.
Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult for companies to accept as it has provisions for up to 15% of ownership being made available in warrants to the government.
They are more levered towards natural gas. It all comes down to being able to live with the volatility. Anything related to Montney natural gas is betting on LNG, which may not come quickly enough. He would stay away.
There was some bad news yesterday, which pulled the stock down. Their problem has been execution. It is really, really undervalued. He likes it down at these prices. Under $8 is a good price. Its gas flows through third-party stations and they got notified that there will be a 1 week outage next week for 30,000 BOE’s a day, which works out to about 1,000 barrels a day on a 40,000 base. This is not big, but it happened this spring and now has happened again. They are fixing it by building their own which comes on stream in the spring. This stock trades at debt adjusted to cash flow about 3.7 and the group trades at 6. There is actually value of $12-$13 here. (See Top Picks)