Stockchase Opinions

David Garrity Bank of America BAC-N DON'T BUY Jun 02, 2008

Earnings growth over the last 12 weeks has been cut in half. There have been a number of questions raised around their balance sheet, particularly with their exposure to Countrywide. Not sure the dividend is safe.
$33.580

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

There will be only 2 rate cuts next year, not 3 or 4. Adjust your expectations. So, this stock is fairly valued, though buy under $40.

HOLD

Growth, but a lot less than Citi. The banks each take their turn to shine, and you want to buy them at different times.

WEAK BUY

They just reported a modest revenue beat and strong earnings beat. All 4 segments grew, though cost controls were merely okay at a modest beat. Expense guidance was merely in-line. BAC is doing fine, not great like its peers.

HOLD
Time to take profits because of the USD-CAD exchange rate?

The "too big to fail" banks have had strong recent earnings. US economy is doing quite well right now, benefiting from lots of tailwinds, new US president is pro-business. This position makes sense.

Whether to trim is more a question of portfolio weighting. Look at the money in your overall portfolio and in BAC specifically. If that position is over 5%, or 7% on its way to 10%, then maybe trim down to 2-3%. That way, if things reverse and the price comes down, it won't have an impact on your overall portfolio.

BUY

Very good company with excellent prospects. Owns shares in the company. Believes banking stocks will continue to lead market. Deregulation from President Trump will allow company to generate new profits. New Crypto developments will also provide catalysts for growth. 

TOP PICK

Loves the money-centre banks. Not quite as expensive as JPM, but more interest-rate sensitive. A gently falling interest-rate environment (which he thinks will come to pass, though it's up for debate), net interest margins will widen and that's traditionally good for banks. Capital markets business has really built up, and will open up post-Biden. Economy in pretty good shape. Undemanding valuation. Yield is 2.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $52.46)
BUY

Likes US financials. Quietly up ~49% last 12 months. Just watch that's it's coming up to potential resistance around $50, which it hit in early 2022. If it breaks above, great sign; but might also bounce down below it. He owns GS. 

See his Top Picks.

HOLD

If the US consumer struggles and can't buy goods and job losses rise due to tariffs, this will slow down the economy and directly impact banks like BAC. It's hard to know where tariffs are going. The dividend is high and BAC has a good, long track record. Best to collect the dividend and wait.

BUY

Financial sector offers great promise, though it's reacted to current markets by pricing in a potential recession. Slower economic growth would not be good for banks. Absent a recession, with consumer confidence returning and unleashing M&A, the sector provides a good opportunity.

A less expensive choice further down the food chain from the likes of JPM.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 17/24, Down 3%)

Still positive on financial sector and on money centre banks in particular. Yield curve is starting to normalize, a positive for banks.