Ryan Bushell Arc Resources Ltd ARX-T PAST TOP PICK Feb 03, 2025

Metals and oil/gas are his favourite areas. Arc is heaver in natural gas, which is doing well now given the cold weather. The chart has moved strongly up, then pulled back and find support at the old break-out point. Add shares at the break-out point.

The price of oil always gets pulled around. He likes the natural gas side a bit more -- it's been through a bear market for years and now coming out of that. Over time, increased ability to get nat gas offshore and the world needs it.

But if you go 100% natural gas it's more risky. So, be more diversified but with a tilt to gas. He likes names that are cheaper than they ought to be. For him that's ARX or, for more torque, AAV.

Whether to sell depends on whether it's in a non-registered account, are you going to be paying tax, and how big is your position. 

Pays a nice dividend, boosted by 12%. Beat on Q3. Higher production, lower cost. Great assets and operators. 8% shareholder returns. Cheaper than it ought to be, with good production and cashflow growth. Good balance sheet. If you want an oil and gas name, this is one to really consider. But he's not keen on oil here.

Excellent company. One of the better operated companies in the Canadian basin. Would wait on Trump tariff announcement before buying. Overall, a very good company. 

EPS of 63c beat estimates of 53c. Revenue of $1.42B beat estimates of $1.38B. EBITDA of $881M beat estimates by 13%. Profit fell 27% despite higher production, due to lower prices. Production rose 4.7% year-over-year. Production matched estimates. EPS does call for lower income in 2025 but we think this is well-reflected in its low valuation. Overall, we are comfortable. 
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Best way to get Canadian nat gas exposure. They just signed a deal with Exxon, selling 25% of nat gas at international prices. Have deep, deep inventory. Is cheap to US peers. Pays a 3% dividend. He's bullish natural gas given AI and data centres.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Energy's been under a bit of pressure lately. Still nothing wrong with the chart. Could pull back a bit more, but the trend is up. Great company. Fundamentally, one of the best. 

He likes the idea of adding on weakness, that's what he's been doing. He uses a lot of optionality in his portfolios. So he's writing puts in the energy sector to acquire companies; if they don't go to those prices, he just earns the income. He's perfectly happy with a strategy like that at this point.

If we get a harder economic landing at some point, then oil has some more downside. The US outlook for crude oil demand was just downgraded. We're in a trading range, and he's accumulating into weakness.

Has more embedded growth due to assets they own, with a bit more wet gas linked to condensate and oil prices. Likes its assets.