Apple IncAAPLCOMMENTJan 31, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 08, 2026. Market Open.
AAPL has done in AI what it's always done -- let the other companies spend the $$, and then just take the resulting product. Very smart. Wait and see who makes the better mousetrap, and then score a deal with them.
Not cheap, very hard for a value investor to buy. However once someone's in their ecosystem, it's like "Hotel California" (you can never leave ;) You'll pay whatever it costs to stay there. Phenomenal products, each year revenues move more toward services (very high margins). High moat. Recurring cashflow.
Close your eyes, buy, tuck it away for a while. Iconic company that will do reasonably well.
Is one of the best-run companies ever with great margins and great growth. A recent knock is that they lack innovation. Their googles were a flop and are absent in AI--though maybe they're waiting for the dust to settle before they buy an AI company. Maybe they're positioning with the next era of Apple as they transition to a new CEO.
Really good opportunity on the AI front. Hasn't missed the boat; by its history, lets other companies do the heavy lifting and then steps in when things are more mature. Then a decade later they own the sector.
Talk of an AI phone. Changes in management (interesting tell that CEO has a hardware engineering background). Tremendous resources. Generates an unbelievable amount of cash. Yield is 0.36%.
Credit them for not getting into the AI arm race and spending a gazillion dollars unlike at least four peers. Meanwhile, they announced enough cash flow to announce another $100 billion share buyback and increasing their dividend. Also, services revenue came in at a record high and 16% growth, their profit generator going forward. iPhone sales have been surprisingly steady recently. The valuation is high, but can grow into that valuation, say they go into a new hardware phase under the new CEO.
Had a very good quarter. Chinese sales are rebounding, up 28%, services hit a new record, gross margins at 49.3% and a $100 billion share buyback. iPhone sales are a little light, but Apple is exciting. He holds a full position. True, it's valuation is too high, but deserves that premium. Give credit that they reduced capex during this period of huge AI spending.
When looking at companies, he wants to make sure they have good visibility of cash flow. This company is more of a hardware company now, with a vast majority of its operating process coming from one product. Over time, this will evolve and service revenues will increase, which will hopefully mitigate some of the volatility and revenue stream, and allow them to branch out to other products. Valuation is compelling and they have a lot of cash, and could be one of the companies that benefits from the repatriation of corporate profits. He is concerned about the technology or hardware risks.