Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Alcoa
AA-N
HOLD
Jul 14, 2014
It is cyclical. There is a mandate that cars have to be lighter and more fuel efficient so that will mean more aluminum. AA-N is getting into more places than before. There is some over head resistance in about 10-15% up and then it might pull back.
Minerals have had a huge run. How sustainable is this underlying demand? He thinks there will be a pullback, as with BHP. Don't buy something top of market. If you've made money, take some off the table. At these levels, stay away.
Are benefitting from high aluminum prices, driven by the Russian war. Lots of ups and downs. Take profits or exit, if you own. Eventually, shares and aluminum prices will decline.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly This integrated producer of aluminum and the world's largest miner of bauxite is a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings support a 30% ROE and cash reserves are growing, while the company buys back shares and retires debt. It trades at 10x earnings compared to peers at 21x and is valued at 1.5x book. We recommend placing a stop loss at $31, looking to achieve $60 -- upside of 25%. Yield 0.8% (Analysts’ price target is $78.64)
The question was on Aluminum companies. He considers Alcoa the obvious one to consider. The stock is cheap but earnings are declining. The FMV is over 55% higher than where it is today.
It is cyclical. There is a mandate that cars have to be lighter and more fuel efficient so that will mean more aluminum. AA-N is getting into more places than before. There is some over head resistance in about 10-15% up and then it might pull back.