Opinions
Paul Harris, CFA A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary COMMENT Mar 02, 2023
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He is a bit surprised by the rates of 15% on average across the board, as they're a lot lower than what first came out on "liberation day" April 2. And the markets are acting accordingly. Markets have done quite well over the last couple of weeks, but tariffs have brought it back down a bit. Could be a buying opportunity.
For those more sanctioned nations, they're seeing 35-40%. Canada is a big surprise with the rate going higher. Surprised we haven't been able to hash out a deal. We should really get rid of the slogan "Elbows up" and just get back to the negotiating table. It's worked well for the EU, Japan, and the UK, and we can live with 10-15%.
The rise to 35% isn't going to bode too well for Canadian equities. Trump continues to say that the issue is fentanyl at the border, but there's also the matter of Canada recognizing the Palestinian state. No tariffs were announced on China or Mexico because they're still negotiating. How could we not have achieved the same level of consideration? Suspects there are more issues underlying the US-Canada relationship than we're aware of.
Talking to colleagues around the office, it's a buying opportunity. The market's done so well since we got over the hump of "liberation day". Now you're seeing it pull back 1-2%.
Tariffs are being announced across the globe, and it's good to get a settlement and finalization of the numbers. As long as you have a number, then you can work around that.
The Canadian market remains cheap compared to the US, and still offers excellent profit growth. Gold stocks have helped, but oil is weak. There's value in financials, railways and Loblaws and Dollarama. Diversified in Canada. The effect of tariffs haven't fully hit yet; consumers haven't felt it yet. US job growth and wage growth have been reasonable. Not yet, but for sure there will be an impact. Tariff policy in the US has been a yo-yo, but if there's too much of an impact on US consumers, he fully expects some tariff relief as we approach the US midterms 1 months from now. We can't invest based on what we think will happen with tariffs down the road, but rather look at the long-term value of companies. Things can change quickly. Corporate earnings have been strong and he expects this to continue. Also, we're seeing big capex from megetach on AI. Comapnies are re-shoring to the US. Tariffs have been a wake-up call to Canada, the EU, etc, and are now encouraging companies to invest domestically to improve productivity.
For the TSX, recent moves are probably not due to earnings. The tariffs were a bit of a wakeup call. The headlines are pretty scary, but things may not be as bad as they looked at first blush. When you really look into it, MUSCA is still in place and protects about 85-90% of the trade we do with the US.
Canada also has agency to start looking at better trade relations with Europe and Asia. We started shipping our LNG. He's actually fairly bullish on Canada.
They're kind of hurting themselves with these tariffs. He doesn't see the point of them. Lots of bluster and politics. Thinks there's enough pressure that tariffs won't be implemented in a meaningful way, and that's the optimistic part.
The pessimistic part is that he's concerned that maybe some of these tariffs will be worse. Some of the jobs data was pretty weak. That could be a leading indicator that the economy might be slowing down a bit.
Earnings have been coming in pretty strong, especially in tech and consumer discretionary. Some of the other areas haven't been as good. Healthcare keeps struggling.
Tariffs are still the #1 thing. He's never had to analyze so much politics in his life, and he's been doing this for quite a while. He'd like to see the rhetoric abate and actual deals get done. That would uncover the true impact. He'd also like to see the jobs data get a bit stronger.
There is an opening to lower interest rates now, as the latest jobs data gave the Fed a bit of a green light. Lower interest rates would mitigate tariffs somewhat.
The grid itself isn't built up enough regardless. Buildout of data centres is huge, representing a whole other layer of energy that we're going to need.
There are a number of attractive companies that are involved in electrification, building the data centres, etc. ETN is one example, as is VRT. HVAC is integral, as these centres need to be kept cool. We saw META do a huge deal with CEG, which is unusual but shows how big the area is going to be. Stay away from the speculative companies.
Nuclear is also bubbling up. We're behind on supplying energy needs for this area, and that's why uranium stocks have been doing really well. He hasn't been able to find just the right opportunity to put money to work in the segment, but there are opportunities. CCO is a nice company, but doesn't screen particularly well. Investors have bid up the stock, as that's where the future looks to be heading. Engineering firms also play into the theme. EME is an example.
Another beneficiary is AVGO. They don't make the chips that do the calculations, but the chips that move the data. Its stock's been doing phenomenally well, and that's all about the data centre buildout. MRVL also makes chips that move data.
Investing 101: If it sounds too good to be true, it could yield trouble
We have been watching with interest this year’s obsession with very-high-yield exchange-traded funds (ETFs). There are products out there, such as YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (symbol MSTY), that have an indicated yield of — wait for it — 72.91 per cent. This ETF uses a synthetic option strategy on a single stock, MicroStrategy Inc. to enhance yield, which is paid out to unitholders. MicroStrategy is among the largest corporate holders of bitcoin right now, and with bitcoin’s rally, the stock has done very well. But even with such a high yield the units of MSTY are down more than 20 per cent this year. ETF owners, attracted by the giant income, still haven’t made any real money, even though MicroStrategy stock itself is up about 36 per cent so far this year. Yet, this has not stopped investors from pouring money into the ETF, now at about US$5.6 billion in assets. And this is just one example. There are now many dozens of such super-high yielding ETFs. We think investors need to be careful here. In addition to getting seduced by high yields, investors could be in trouble in a different type of market, or if the derivative market seizes up, as it has done before.
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Hard to tell on a quarterly basis. As a general rule, they're in very good shape. Even though loan losses have continued to rise, that's a good thing because they can take them back into earnings when things aren't as bad as forecast. Lots of capital to increase dividends or buy back shares, not trading at extreme levels on book value. In his dividend portfolio, he owns TD, RY, CM, and BNS. These are great businesses over the long term. A lot of the quarters had one-off costs. Great things to buy and hold long term. They continue to make money.