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Big gains in today's markets, because there's lots of optimism about the US Congress pushing through a massive relief bill for working Americans who are staying at home to battle the virus. Also, there may be negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia over the oil war. We face two black swans: COVID-19 and the Saudi-Russian oil war. Also hitting energy stocks earlier was a mild winter, depressing oil demand. Until China, Europe and South Korean restore demand, the storage costs for just holding existing oil will continue to skyrocket. The bottleneck in oil will be not just selling it, but shipping it. This will be the problem in April for Canadians and the Saudis alike. WCS oil: C$12 doesn't even cover operating costs for heavy oil. so he expects many more shutdowns of oil production. By late-April, the worst of this oil shakeout should be over. If the virus is tamed by May/June, oil should rise to $30-40/barrel, and the price in the second half of 2020 will depend on the wider economy. To pick an oil stock now, look at their balance sheets and cash flows last year. Natural gas prices haven't been hit as hard during all this. If oil prices rise in the second half of 2020, which he predicts, the 2020 average will be in the low-$50s. Oil companies have no choice but to cut dividends except those with strong balance sheets like Tourmaline and Birchcliffe. Energy infrastructure stocks are very cheap now and will bounce back.

They announced a $1-billion spending cutback. Their cash flow is right on their dividend, so they could cut the dividend and use that cash to lower their debt. Cash flow is tight with this low oil price. They could endure Q2 without cutting the dividend and cash flow improves along with the oil price. The upstream side will have less cash flow, but downstream could be much more profitable if people return to driving.

All oil has been decimated. Shocking. But these stocks can bounce nicely on optimistic day. They have free cash flow to service their debt. Don't chase it today, but nibble under $12 and hold it for long term. They have a great suite of assets and they will pay down their debt. Down the road, expect buybacks and acquisitions.

Enterprise value is very cheap. But the issue is they have debt. They did an infrastructure deal to reduce that debt. A big part of that debt is a 2024 maturity at a low interest rate, so Crew will survive. Their liquids are in a condensate-rich area. The stock has been hammered because of high debt. He's bought more of this in the past week.

It's one of the best-managed Canadian oil companies. The benefit from LNG takeaway on the west coast. They cut their dividend by 60%. It's a good name with reasonable debt and fine managers. True, there are concerns about the CFO and CEO retiring, but they have bench strength. Also, their assets are strong. Buy under $2.80 for the long term.

(A Top Pick Mar 28/19, Down 90%) That loss reflects the oil sector. But based on their fundamentals, the stock is oversold--all small/medium-caps. This is a long-term hold given its quality assets. He's holding and will add in the near future.

(A Top Pick Mar 28/19, Down 80%) No debt and strong balance sheet. They just replaced their CEO whom he will soon meet. HWO will survive. They cut their dividend to zero. Strong fundamentals means they will endure.

(A Top Pick Mar 28/19, Up 100%) They work in Trinidad, drilling for oil onshore. They have long-term potential with a plan to drill three wells in 2019-2020. The first was successful with a well likely to produce in July. A second discovery could come on in early-2021 and add more production. These drills have rallied the stock. He has an 80-cent target, so there's lots of upside. Even in tough times with low prices, successful drilling for oil will pay off.

A very small cap stock under $10M with debt over $50M. 66% of their production is liquids; the rest is nat. gas. They'll likely cut back production, but if they can keep production flat and free up some cash flow to pay the debt, they may get supports from their lenders. They'll be a long-term viable player. A good operator.

Dividend safe? They halved the dividend and cut it further recently. It was a very long-standing dividend payer, but slashed capex because of their balance sheet. The current dividend is safe. He likes VET and has been adding to his position in the past week. VET has been shafted hard, unfairly. He likes the geographic diversity of their assets.

Has a decent balance sheet with good cash flow. The dividend is safe, but they have cut back their budget over 30%. They will stop oil shipments by rail because of high costs and low oil prices. They were the first to batten down the hatches, but after we endure the oil and virus crises, CVE will survive. If low prices continue, they could cut costs further.

Debt to cash flow is under 2x last year. Natural gas prices are holding well. It now pays a 17% dividend that their cash flow can sustain. He's been adding to his position. There's a huge disconnect between this stock price and its fundamentals. No reality, just fear. The balance sheet is fine and the stock is very cheap.

The trophy name in Canada, the largest nat. gas producer. Their production of liquids is rising. They pay a 7.1% dividend yield. It's trading at its lowest valuation level ever. Great managers over the decades. They're generating free cash flow from their contracted gas, and with US revenues higher given the weaker Canadian dollar. He's been buying more shares recently.

It's his oil play. It's trading at half its cash flow. They announced a spending cut and halved their dividend recently. They are paying down debt, but still serving that dividend. He's been adding to his position recently. This will definitely survive.