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June 17, 2019

Canadian Forestry stocks. Here is an industry that is in a bit of oversupply. Curtailing production should be good in the short term. We are seeing all of these stocks selling towards their lows rather than highs. CFF is selling at a fraction of the book value. They have had negative earnings of late. WFT-T is 1.5 times book. IFP-T is at book value but has a much higher multiple. WEF-T is trading in the middle of the previous two but with a much more significant yield, possibly not as secure. They all have reasonable assets. They are a decent value play and could stand to do well if we get a building resurgence. You have to be patient.

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Canadian Forestry stocks. Here is an industry that is in a bit of oversupply. Curtailing production should be good in the short term. We are seeing all of these stocks selling towards their lows rather than highs. CFF is selling at a fraction of the book value. They have had negative earnings of late. WFT-T is 1.5 times book. IFP-T is at book value but has a much higher multiple. WEF-T is trading in the middle of the previous two but with a much more significant yield, possibly not as secure. They all have reasonable assets. They are a decent value play and could stand to do well if we get a building resurgence. You have to be patient.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 17, 2019
All eyes on the U.S. Fed now, and it's likely they will cut rates at the end of July then sometime later. It's accomodating for stock markets which make him quite optimistic about the markets. The markets are still trading at reasonable multiples in New York as well as Toronto....Apple remains good value. He's still consolidating core, defensive names and it's working well for him. He predicts that Trump will hold the US-China trade deal through the 2020 campaign, so buckle up. This will drag on long after the G20 Summit.
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All eyes on the U.S. Fed now, and it's likely they will cut rates at the end of July then sometime later. It's accomodating for stock markets which make him quite optimistic about the markets. The markets are still trading at reasonable multiples in New York as well as Toronto....Apple remains good value. He's still consolidating core, defensive names and it's working well for him. He predicts that Trump will hold the US-China trade deal through the 2020 campaign, so buckle up. This will drag on long after the G20 Summit.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 17, 2019
Should I replace a floating-rate preferred ETF with a US Treasury ETF? No, because the market is pricing in three interest rate cuts this year. The US 10-year is down to 2%. If you did make this move, then you have to time it very carefully, playing it for 40-50 basis points, then shift back into something with protection as yields rise again. He'd rather hold onto that rate-reset amd be ready when rates move up later--and they will at some point (maybe in 6-12 months).
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Should I replace a floating-rate preferred ETF with a US Treasury ETF? No, because the market is pricing in three interest rate cuts this year. The US 10-year is down to 2%. If you did make this move, then you have to time it very carefully, playing it for 40-50 basis points, then shift back into something with protection as yields rise again. He'd rather hold onto that rate-reset amd be ready when rates move up later--and they will at some point (maybe in 6-12 months).